Daily Market Wire 4 July 2018

Lachstock Consulting, July 4, 2018

Higher for grains and mixed for oilseeds, ahead of the 4th of July holiday in the US.
  • CBOT Wheat up 10.75c to 491c
  • Kansas wheat up 13.25c to 484c
  • Corn up 5c to 352c, Soybean down -5.5c to 848c
  • Winnipeg Canola down -2.5$C to 506.9$C
  • Matif canola up 0.5€ to 359.75€
  • Dow Jones down -132.36 to 24174.82
  • Crude Oil up 0.23c to $US74.17 per barrel
  • AUD up to 0.738c
  • CAD down to 1.313c (AUDCAD 0.970)
  • EUR up to 1.166c (AUDEUR 0.633)


Beans were softer in a low ranging session, as the market prepares for a holiday two days before the US is scheduled to impose it’s import tariffs on China. The prospects of a resolution seem to be drifting further away, with China trying to align itself with Europe in a combative approach to the US governments-imposed tariffs. On the beans tariff front the market could go anyway from here, but one optimistic outlook is that the Chinese government could import US beans as “reserve” stocks which could possibly avoid the tariff, enabling them to auction off the stock in country. Soymeal was down $1.20 per tonne, while soy oil was down 14 points.


Canola was mixed across the contracts again, with Matif futures gaining support from production concerns in the EU, while Winnipeg was softer in line with beans and vegoils.


Corn found some support today from wheat and a warmer US weather forecast, bouncing back from the new 18-month lows forged in yesterday’s session. The range was relatively thin and can be attributed to the lower volume ahead of the public holiday. There is talk that the Trump government is planning to intervene in local US grain markets by means of a support program to boost prices, once tariffs are imposed. This will likely support prices in the short to medium term. IKAR reduced their Russian production forecast down 500kmt to 12.3mmt (USDA at 15mmt), providing further pressure on the global balance sheet and the US corn yield.


Wheat was stronger with ongoing production concerns supporting markets in the US and Europe. Implied vol in Sep SRW finished at 26.87%. Matif futures were up 1.75€ with persistent dryness in Northern Europe, which is combining with incredibly wet Russian Spring wheat areas to raise Fob offers. Algeria’s tender results showed a $237 CNF purchase price, which is up $10 on their previous tender. The world continues to face production losses in wheat, the extent of which is unknown, but it is all supportive of US wheat finding a large increase in export demand as the season unfolds.
Aussie markets were mixed to slightly softer yesterday with the Downs market softening slightly. WA received up to 15-25mm with decent coverage, though prices did not respond negatively with grower selling limited. The 8-day forecast offers nothing of significance to NSW, QLD or SA, which should start to raise concerns for traders and consumers. SA has not had much coverage recently, but conditions there are not looking great, with their 6-month rainfall well below average on a limited soil moisture base. With a tightening global wheat and barley balance sheet and increase demand requirements from the East Coast, the domestic market needs to be very careful of any production declines or export increases in WA and SA.

Source: Lachstock Consulting


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