The United States Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by half a per cent overnight in the largest single cut since the Global Financial Crisis, referencing financial risks to the global market because of COVID-19.  The number of reported cases of the virus and associated deaths continues to rise around the world, but the overall picture of COVID-19 remains hard to quantify.  China also has more reports of African Swine Fever coming in. While the new reports are from cases in wild herds, they will not be supportive of feedgrain demand from China.

After a few weeks of optimistic opinions on the new-crop wheat, production concerns have reemerged.  Western Europe’s crop is too wet in parts, the Black Sea is too warm and a little dry with no rain forecast, and Safrinha corn could use a drink in parts of Brazil.  There is a little bit of baseline concern building back into markets to keep the bulls hoping.  In Australia, ABARES has come out with a preliminary estimate for the wheat crop to be planted in coming months of 21.3 million tonnes (Mt), well below Lachstock’s estimated of 25.4Mt.  ABARES number seems well out of whack with current conditions, and has attracted discussion.

Desperately needed rain has fallen across central and southern New South Wales overnight, and is continuing into today. Around Forbes, 30 millimetres or more has fallen in some areas, though most falls have been around 20mm.  Weather models are still penciling in a wide swath of 50mm or more of rain through the next two days, and there is lots of optimism to go around.