Markets

Daily Market Wire 4 March 2021

Lachstock Consulting, March 4, 2021

Grains markets fell 1pc to 2pc, giving up most of Tuesday’s gain. Canola firmed 2pc.

  • Chicago wheat May contract down US10.25c/bu to 656c;
  • Kansas wheat May contract down 9.25c/bu to 626c;
  • Minneapolis wheat May contract down 2.25c/bu to 643c;
  • MATIF wheat May contract down €2.25/t to €229.75;
  • Corn May contract down 9.75c/bu to 535.25c;
  • Soybeans May contract down 5c/bu to 1407.50c;
  • Winnipeg canola May contract up C$14.20/t to $767.30;
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract up €1.25/t to €503.75;
  • Dow Jones down 14 to 31,378;
  • US dollar index up 0.2 to 91;
  • AUD weaker at US$0.779;
  • CAD steady at $1.264;
  • EUR firmer at $1.207;
  • ASX wheat May contract up A$2.30/t to $301.30;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 contract up $0.50/t to $308.

International

Safrinha planting estimates in Brazil remain pessimistic with renewed reports of off-grade soybeans and bogging down harvest. Paraná state soybean harvest recently was forecast 23 per cent complete, compared with greater than 50 pc normally, and corn 28pc planted. National estimates are similar, about half of normal both soybean harvest and corn planting.

Weather maps in Argentina also remain dry across the two-week window. They are similar forecasts to recent days, but not tempering any concerns.

US weekly ethanol production has bounced back from 658k bpd to 849k bpd, still some 60k bpd below pre-cold snap levels. Its expected to pick back up again into the next week of data.  Stocks were also down 360k with the lower production.

Winnipeg continued it’s rally and crude oil also jumped US1.50/barrel to $61.3 WTI / $64.1 Brent. Rumours OPEC will not follow through on production increases outweighing the large crude draw. An OPEC + meeting is set for today.

ONAB, the state food agency in Algeria followed its recent durum enquiry with a tender for corn.

A private soil lab/monitoring group in Kansas assessed not seeing significant winter kill from the recent cold snap.

Weather maps there are also bringing in some better moisture chances, a fairly widespread inch on the recent map runs which would be well appreciated in the drought areas of southern Kansas and central Oklahoma. Less rain was forecast to reach the Panhandle.

Yet another outbreak of ASF has been reported in China, with the government there confirming positive tests in Yunnan.

Australia
Local markets remaining quiet. ASX wheat firmed but there was little trade in both trade-to-trade markets and grower-origination.  The focus remains on execution and logistics. There are more reports of unhappy trades trying to book front end ocean freight in the squeeze.

Weather maps adding to the forecast rain for later this weekend/early next week across northern NSW, a widespread 25+ mm on the maps to further help boost soil profiles.

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