Daily Market Wire 4 May 2023

Lachstock Consulting, May 4, 2023
  • Chicago wheat December 2023 contract up US29 cents per bushel to 666.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December 2023 contract up 39.75c/bu  to 778.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December 2023 up 30.75c/bu to 815c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December 2023 up €4.25/t to €238.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December 2023 down US$1/t to $280.50/t;
  • Corn July 2023 contract up 8.5c/bu to 588.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans July 2023 contract up 6.75c/bu to 1417.50c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola July 2023 contract up C$6.50/t to $715.90/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed August 2023 contract down €4.50/t to €436.50/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat contract down A$4/t to $379/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley contract unchanged at A$317.80/t;
  • AUD dollar gained 8 points to US$0.6671


Russia accused Ukraine of orchestrating a drone attack on Putin’s residence in an attempt to kill him and have vowed to retaliate. The Kremlin said the strike was foiled by Russian “electronic warfare systems,” but did not release any evidence to show that Ukraine was behind the explosions. Ukraine strongly denied any involvement, saying that Russia had manufactured the incident to distract attention from their looming counteroffensive. Zelenskiy said “We don’t attack Putin, or Moscow, we fight on our territory and defend our towns and cities.” A senior Ukrainian official warned that it was an attempt by the Kremlin to set the stage for deadlier strikes.

The alleged “attack” is probably not a great sign for the corridor negotiations which are reportedly taking place tomorrow. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said talks between Russia and the United Nations on the Black Sea grain deal will be held in Moscow on May 5. The Kremlin confirmed Russia will continue talks with the UN and other parties about the grain deal but said it would not do anything to harm its own interests.

According to the Russian Grain Union, April grains exports totalled 6.0Mt, including 5Mt wheat, the highest April exports in six years. Maize export was 627,000 tonnes (+38pc year on year) and barley 387,000 tonnes, up significantly from April last year.

Black Sea market analyst SovEcon pegged Russia’s  2023-24 wheat production at 86.8Mt, down from 104.2Mt in 2022-23, with 2023-24 exports tentatively projected at 43.0Mt (44.4Mt 2022-23).

The EU Commission has suspended imports of wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower seeds from Ukraine to Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia, from May 2 to June 5 it said in an official statement.

India’s Meteorological Department reports that as at 2 May, cumulative rainfall since 1 March is estimated to be 25pc above the long-term average, with excessive or normal rainfall at 85pc of monitoring stations.   

Drought in Spain is becoming more of a watch point as continuing dry conditions are stressing winter wheat growth and early corn germination. No relief of the hot and dry conditions are expected for at least the next 15 days.

Egypt’s GASC purchased 655,000 tonnes of wheat from the EU (Romania) and Russia, with prices estimated to be in the $250-$260/t fob range, for June shipment. Shipping costs reportedly range from $15.50 to $20/t.


Local markets remain fairly subdued as growers are focused on planting. ASX July wheat closed down $2/t yesterday at $372/t while Jan 24 wheat was up $1/t at $380/t 

WA is looking to pick up a widespread 10-25mm over the next 8 days with parts of SA and southern Vic looking at the same. NSW is looking relatively dry and there is nothing on the forecast for Qld.


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