Markets

Daily Market Wire 4 November 2022

Lachstock Consulting, November 4, 2022

Australian wheat futures eased 2pc.  Overnight commodity markets saw small, mostly downward, moves. Macro markets had the US dollar index firmer and the Dow Jones Industrials Average weaker.

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US5.5 cents per bushel to 840.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 1c/bu at 941.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 6.25c/bu to 943c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €0.50/t to €340.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract down US$1/t to $318/t;
  • Corn December contract down 8.25c/bu to 679.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans March 2023 contract down 17.5c/bu to 1444c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola March 2023 contract was unchanged at C$897.10/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2023 contract down €2.25/t to  €660/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down $A10/t to $494/t ;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract unchanged A$350/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.629.

International

The Kremlin said on Thursday it had not committed to extending the export deal beyond the 19 November deadline. Russia says it still needs to assess whether the deal was working before deciding whether to extend its participation. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov urged the United Nations to step up its efforts to ensure Western countries ease restrictions Moscow says hinder its agricultural and fertiliser exports which also formed part of the deal. “We still do not see any results regarding a second aspect: the removal of obstacles to the export of Russian fertilisers and grain”.

There are currently 120 vessels waiting to use the export corridor with the JCC saying that “While the queue for the inspections has been significantly reduced, there are currently over 120 vessels waiting to move, mainly those planning an inbound voyage”.

Argentina has announced that due to severe drought conditions and a smaller than expected harvest, current wheat export licenses will be extended for up to 360 days. The measure would apply to shipments originally scheduled to load between 1 Dec and 28 Feb. 

China’s General Administration of Customs has added 136 Brazilian maize export facilities to a list of exporters with approval to deliver to China. Additionally, 14 Brazilian soymeal facilities were added to the list of approved suppliers. 

Jordan’s state grains buyer made no purchase in a tender for 120,000t feed barley, with a new tender expected to be issued in the coming days. Separately, Jordan seeks (15 Nov) 120,000 t milling wheat, Mar/Apr shipment, and (16 Nov) 120,000 t feed barley, Mar/Apr. 

Russia’s Ag Ministry reports that as at early-Nov, 2023-24 winter crops have been planted on around 17Mha. Fieldwork in some regions, notably in the Volga and Central Districts, has been hampered by overly wet conditions, with additional fields likely to be seeded with spring crops later in the season. Reduced fertiliser application rates may negatively impact productivity. 

StoneX Group raised its 2022-23 US maize production forecast by 1.3Mt, to 358.4Mt (353.0Mt WASDE Oct f’cast, 382.9Mt previous year). The soybean production forecast was trimmed by 0.8Mt, to 120.1Mt (117.4Mt WASDE, 121.5Mt previous year).

Australia

Local markets continued to track sideways to round out the week. In the instances where growers have some confidence in the crop and approaching harvest they are getting more active at hitting the bid at current values. The ASX Jan 23 eastern wheat contract settled A$10/t lower from previous trading day and saw a touch more liquidity trade on the Jan to March spread with Jan at $494 and March at $492 settle. With a stop start harvest in the north wheat values have also tracked sideways for the week, SFW1 quoting $400-405/t and H2 Brisbane $568/t.
 A very welcome dry couple of days are on the cards. Showers are forecast to reappear on Sunday but the totals at this stage look to be below 10mm from Sunday into next week for most. Victoria is expected to receive 10-25mm is expected from Tuesday to Friday.

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