Markets

Daily Market Wire 4 October 2022

Lachstock Consulting, October 4, 2022

Monday’s offshore wheat markets eased a little following strong Friday gains.

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US9.5 cents per bushel to 912c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 2.75c/bu to 988.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 2c/bu to 980c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €5.75/t to €351/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract up $0.50/t to $330/t;
  • Corn December contract up 3.25c/bu to 680.75/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract up 9.25c/bu to 1374c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola Nov 2022 contract up C$11.80 to $863.80/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract up €0.25/t to €633.25/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract unchanged at A$442/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$322.50/t;
  • AUD dollar firmer at US$0.651.

International

USDA’s US Small Grains 2022 Summary surprised the market on Friday with 2022/23 all-wheat production estimated at 44.9Mt compared to 48.5m the earlier USDA WASDE September forecast. Winter wheat was pegged at 30.0m (32.6Mt Sept forecast), durum 1.7Mt (2.0Mt Sept) and other spring wheat 13.1Mt (13.9Mt Sept). The European Commission has raised its 22/23 rapeseed production forecast by 400,000t, to 19.3Mt (17.0Mt previous year). The common wheat production forecast was raised by 1.1Mt, to 127Mt (130.1m previous year). The barley forecast was increased by 1.0Mt, to 51.5Mt (52.0Mt) According to Stratégie Grains, better than expected harvest results, including in Germany, France and Poland, have pushed 2022/23 rapeseed production forecast up by 300,000t, to 19.5Mt (+15pc y/y) and that widespread Sept rains helped European farmers carry out 2023/24 rapeseed sowing after a severe summer drought, while boosting soil conditions for upcoming wheat and barley. However, more rains are needed to replenish moisture deficits.  

The Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) made no purchase in a recent tender for 300,000 tonnes of wheat. Ukraine’s Infrastructure Ministry reported, at 2 Oct, cumulative grain exports under Black Sea Grain Initiative totalled 5.8Mt.  

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said prolonged drought conditions resulted in 2022/23 maize plantings of just 6pc complete (3pc previous week, 17pc previous year), with fieldwork largely confined to central provinces. Rainfall is urgently required given that the optimal window for early-planted fields closes at the end of October. Dry conditions delayed fieldwork in parts of Buenos Aires and Cordoba provinces. Limited rainfall remained a challenge for wheat crops, especially across the centre and the north, with conditions rated at 55pc fair/excellent (58pc, 76pc).  

FranceAgriMer reported, at 26 Sep, 2022/23 French maize harvest was estimated 51pc complete (26pc previous week, 2pc previous year), with 41pc of plants rated good/excellent (43pc, 89pc). 

 

Australia

Monday’s NSW and SA public holiday markets lacked grower bids but wheat numbers were up $5-8/t and canola, showing some very good gains, was bid up $15-20/t. Old crop liquidity was steady throughout the day on Clear Grain Exchange with a bit over 12,000t traded across the country. Some October delivered ex-farm demand popped up from buyers to limp to the end of their old crop programs, but with wet weather remaining relentless it will continue to push harvest out and come on a tad later in eastern Australia. Rain showers are forecast to push across most parts of the South Australian growing region today, while the bulk of the east coast rain event is still expected to arrive Wednesday. The market continues to worry about quality for new crop and now it’s a wait and see as to what crops can withstand this next round of east coast rain. 

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