Markets

Daily Market Wire 4 September 2020

Lachstock Consulting, September 4, 2020

US wheat and corn futures settled lower. Paris wheat was steady and rapeseed slightly firmer.

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US5 cents per bushel to 553.25;
  • Kansas wheat December contract was down 3.5c/bu to  475.75c;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 0.25c/bu to 547.25;
  • MATIF wheat December contract unchanged at €188;
  • Corn December contract down 5c/bu to 353.75;
  • Soybeans November contract up 4c/bu to 966;
  • Winnipeg canola November up C$0.20 to C$503.70;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract up €0.25/t to €384;
  • Brent crude November contract down US$0.36 per barrel to $44.07;
  • Dow Jones index points down 808 points to 28,293;
  • AUD weaker at $0.727;
  • CAD weaker at $1.313;
  • EUR unchanged at $1.185.

Markets

Wheat’s sell off continued with Chicago closing down a nickle to 553 1/4¢, KC -3.5¢ to 475 3/4¢, Minny – 1/4¢ to 547 1/4¢, and Matif unch.  Corn also took a cut, dropping a nickle to 353 3/4¢ and beans were up 4 cents (Matif  up a quarter euro, Winnipeg up twenty cents). Crude dropped thirty cents to $41.1 WTI / $44.1 Brent and the DOW sold off 808 points with a big move downwards in tech stocks leading the way.  The USD is steady around 92.7, the AUD 72.7¢, the CAD $1.313, and the EUR $1.185.

We’re going into a long weekend, the USDA WASDE report won’t be out until later next week, and overall news situation around the world is quiet. It certainly feels like there’s been some profit taking after the rally on agricultural commodities.  With a long weekend upcoming for traders to reconsider market ideas, what is going to be the big driver into next week?  We know the USDA report will be there, but calling sentiment there after the recent rally is tricky. On one hand yield ideas on row crops are definitely lower than they were just a few weeks ago, but on the other corn and bean markets have already done a lot of the “job” needed to compensate for lower production.  China’s still the wild card, of course, and a resumption to the semi-regular sales flashes today as helped stoke the fires for bulls.

Global Highlights:

  • US futures markets will be closed next Monday and Monday night (Sunday night and Monday US time) for Labor Day holiday
  • The next USDA WASDE report will be out Friday, September 11th (US time)
  • Egypt’s GASC bought one Russian boat.  With offers up into the low $230s per tonne CandF range it would seem GASC didn’t like the higher prices.  The offers were all of Black Sea origin, the majority Russian and two Ukrainian.  Price moves were largely in line with the broader market shift since last tender
  • US export sales figures had corn sales at 2.4 million tonnes (Mt), beans 1.7Mt and wheat 585,000t. They were all at the higher end of estimates but still within expected ranges  .  Sorghum sales had two boats to China, and there was 250,000t wheat business to China, partially confirming old rumours.
  • New flashes last night saw 450,000t of beans sold. Two boats unknown but the rest confirmed China
  • There’s a little more rain pushing onto the forecast maps for the US corn belt. The big question now is how much damage has been done with the recent weather, and everyone is busy speculating and assessing.

Australia:

  • New crop bids soften by a dollar in Vic while the NSW Port Kembla zone remain relatively firm
  • The GM canola discount to non-GM starts to narrow along the east coast, shrinking to $45-50/t range. It had previously got out to -$65/t.
  • Mice issues become more of a problem up in Queensland cropping region with growers baiting
  • AUD/USD peels back to .73 range after a short-lived overbought RSI reading
  • Vetch hay starting to get dropped around SA and the Vic Mallee region
  • Border closures and access to contractors and staff still front of mind for growers as we lead into harvest.

 

 

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