International

China Ministry of Commerce announced it will launch an anti-dumping probe into Canadian canola imports. It said in a statement the volume of Canada’s canola exports to China had increased 170 percent year-on-year, that total value had reached US$3.47 billion in 2023 and there had been a continuous decline in prices.

The probe is thought to be in retaliation to Canada’s recent imposition of tariffs on EVs, steel and aluminium. Winnipeg values eased C$16/t after the announcement.  

China may turn to Australian origin canola if Canadian imports were restricted, a move which would support Australian value. Australia effectively has beeb locked out of the Chinese market since 2020 due to China’s zero tolerance for blackleg disease. It would be necessary for China to change its quarantine requirements to clear Australian canola for import. 

Ukraine Ag Ministry reportedly has reached an agreement with exporters and farmer groups to cap wheat exports at 16.2Mt for 2024-25. Ukraine exported 18.3Mt of wheat in 2023-24. Through the first two months of the 2024-25 marketing year, Ukraine exported 3.59Mt of wheat, up 2.53Mt from the same period last year. The Ministry said wheat is the only ag commodity that will have an export limit for 2024-25. 

Crop consultant Michael Cordonnier cut his US corn and soybean yield forecasts by 1 bu/ac and 0.5 bu/ac respectively after last week’s extreme heat across the Corn Belt. Dr Cordonnier now estimates the corn yield at 182.5 bu. per acre with production at 15.09 billion bushels and the soybean yield at 53 bu. per acre and production at 4.57 billion bushels. He has a neutral to slightly lower bias toward both crops.

Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued a tender for 120kt of wheat, Jan and Feb 2025 shipment. Deadline for offers is 12 Sept. 

US private exporters reported sales of 132kt of soybeans to China during the 2024-25 marketing year.

Australia

WA bids mostly were unchanged.  Barley was bid slightly firmer for both new and old crop. Eastern Australian markets were supported for a second day. Old and new crop track wheat was bids up A$2-5/t to around $330/t for new and $322/t for old crop. Canola and barley bids were largely unchanged. 

Well above average temps of 30 degrees are forecast for SA northern cropping areas tomorrow. Coupled with strong winds, crops will be on a knife’s edge and rain desperately is needed in the next fortnight.

This weeks line ups data shows 1.67Mt of total grain on the stem for September up from 1.41Mt last week. Wheat is up 199kt to 851kt, barley is up 96kt to 308kt, while canola is down 50kt to 352kt, and sorghum is at 160kt, up 20kt. Port activity decreased last week which was reflected in the average wait times across the country, with the current maximum wait time across all ports 10 days, with 7 vessels loading and 3 anchored.