Daily Market Wire 5 April 2023

Lachstock Consulting April 5, 2023

Rapeseed eased 2pc.

  • Chicago wheat May 2023 contract down US2 cents per bushel to 691.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat May 2023 contract down 2.75c/bu to 872.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat May 2023 down 2.25c/bu to 889.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May 2023 down €1/t to €255.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat May 2023 unchanged at US$282.50/t;
  • Corn May 2023 contract down 4c/bu to 653.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2023 contract down 4.5c/bu to 1517.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2023 contract up C$0.90/t to $777.30/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2023 contract down €11.75/t to €478.25/t;
  • ASX May 2023 wheat contract unchanged at A$391/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat contract down A$2/t to $398/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley contract unchanged at A$332.20/t;
  • AUD dollar eased 34 points to US$0.6752


According to SovEcon estimates, as of March 29, the average third-grade wheat price in Russia dropped to RUB11,550 ($147), the lowest price since November 27, 2019. The decline is attributed to high wheat supply and weak demand from exporters. The decrease in exporter demand is due to falling wheat export prices, with SovEcon estimating the average FOB price of Russian wheat on March 22 at $279/t, the lowest since August 2021. Exporters are likely pausing, anticipating even lower prices in the short term.

USDA’s FAS post in India has pegged 2023-24 wheat production at 108Mt, up from 100Mt in 2022-23. Favourable weather conditions and sufficient soil moisture from the time of planting through the vegetative/reproductive stages buoyed record planting levels. Yields are forecast at 3.39t/ha, up on last year’s 3.28t/ha. Currently, the crop is at the advanced-maturity stage, progressing well without any visible impact of heat stress or pest and/or disease incidences in wheat growing states. The report noted that as the Indian Government needs to replenish its depleted wheat stocks, a relaxation in its export ban on wheat and wheat products is unlikely, at least through the peak harvest/marketing period.

Reuters has reported India will relax parameters to procure wheat from areas where untimely rainfall and hail damaged crops just before harvest. “We have allowed Madhya Pradesh state to procure wheat even with 10pc loss in luster. If required we would take call for other states and other parameters such as moisture,” a senior government official said. The wheat crop has also been damaged in Punjab and Haryana because of rainfall, and the government will likely make similar changes in the procurement rules for these states.

Recent rain has stabilised crops in Argentina, leading South American crop consultant Dr Michael Cordonnier to keep his Argentine crop estimates at 26Mt for soybeans and 36Mt for corn. He also kept his Brazilian crop estimates at 151Mt for soybeans and 121Mt for corn .

StoneX has revised Brazilian soybean production up by 3Mt to 157.7Mt, reflecting higher area and yields. 2023 (Jan/Dec) exports seen at 96.0Mt (93Mt CONAB, 78.7Mt previous year), with closing stocks at 9Mt (5.5Mt, 3.2Mt)


Canola followed offshore markets yesterday with a $15/t bounce, but is still giving up more basis. The AUD took some heat out of the domestic market with a preemptive rally prior to the RBA meeting.


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