Daily market wire 5 Dec 2016

Lachstock Consulting, December 5, 2016


Wheat and corn finally show signs of life with gains across the board.

This comes as a result of being oversold coupled with some short covering. Either way we were due for some sort of a rally. It will be interesting to see how the market behaves with the upcoming StatsCan report on the 6th of December and the USDA report due to come out on the 9th.

CBOT Wheat was up 8.75c to 404.25c, Kansas wheat up 5.5c to 420.5c, Corn up 4.25c to 354.25c, soybeans down -2.25c to 1027.5c, Winnipeg canola up $C1.59 to $C529.3, and Matif canola down -€1.25 to €409.75. The Dow Jones down -21.51 to 19170.42 , Crude Oil up 0.62c to 51.68c, AUD down to 0.7449c, CAD up to 1.329c, (AUDCAD 0.9895) and the was EUR down to 1.0638c (AUDEUR 0.6996).

Russia continue to make headlines in the wheat world after the southern hemisphere have started to dominate the export market. It has been stated that Russian wheat has the potential to fall to $177 per tonne FOB from its current level of $184. This seems a necessity if they are going to start reducing the mountains of grain they are currently harbouring on their shores.

The bean market continued to trade in a relatively tight range as it waits in anticipation for wet weather in Argentina. It is still a little bit too early for real weather concerns in Argi but in regards to a potential rally in the bean market there isn’t a great deal else to talk about. China imports from the US have slowed of late with suggestions they are looking to Canada in February.

The corn market showed signs of strength in an attempt to keep up with the gains in the wheat market. This strength came on the back of some commercial pricing along with some fund short covering. Corn COT had the spec short 62.9k from 58.2k. Cash markets were relatively firm although farmers haven’t come to the party with very few signs of farmer selling.

Canadian canola harvest is said to be 87% complete showing that not much ground has been made of over the last fortnight. Winter has all but arrived in Alberta which happens to be where majority of the remaining crop is located. StatsCan will put out their final December 2016/17 output estimate tomorrow

Domestically harvest in AUS continues to roll on with massive yields dominating the headlines.

There is rain on the horizon for the second half of the week for cropping areas of NSW and VIC but the next four days are looking clear.

We are still a couple of weeks away from getting a grip on quality profiles for the Victorian crop which is proving to be the final piece in the puzzle.

Source: Lachstock Consulting 


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