• Rumours back, once again, about a resolution to the trade war …
• Quiet global markets, with ongoing focus on new crop weather outlooks
• Aussie markets continue to firm on feed demand

Chicago finally bounced after the sell off – closing up two and a quarter to 527.5¢, KC +3 ¾¢ to 440.5¢, Minny +1.5¢ to 515¢, and Matif was off a quarter of a euro to 184€ on the earlier close.  Corn gave up 2 ¾¢ to 378.5¢ while beans picked up seven and a quarter to close at 878¢.  Matif rapeseed jumped 3€ to 392.25€ and Winnipeg was off thirty cents to $452.6.  Crude is up about $2 with Texas $58.4/barrel and Brent $63, while the DOW has gained 147 points to close up for the first time this week.  The AUD is steady at 0.685¢, the CAD nominally stronger to $1.319, and the EUR is trading at $1.108.

Excuse us for being sceptical, but once again we’re hearing headlines about a trade deal “being close” and potentially before the Dec 15 tariff hike – but with nothing concrete to back that up it is hard to see that following through.

Agricultural markets were mostly quiet overnight though, with little new to grab excitement.

Weather concerns globally are continuing to crop up.

South American bean crops are too dry in Argentina and analysts are starting to cut estimates slightly there.

Brazilian weather looks reasonable into the next two weeks though, and some are beginning to talk quietly towards a 128-130 million tonnes crop.

Parts of Russia and eastern Europe are also still on the drier side, although there are rains coming in for the western EU this week.

Export sales should be out early tomorrow morning (US day), and we’re a little surprised to see ideas of potentially a million tonnes of beans given that the duty-free Chinese business is reportedly all done.

Australia

Aussie markets continue to firm within the trade, particularly on the barley side – southern delivered homes are up $6-8/t from the start of the week.

We’re still closely watching the weather across the Downs, and outlooks remain very poor there, helping to push along the overall feed market.

Hay markets are also continuing to firm, with support from feed needs as graziers look to feed animals until they can get through to slaughter.

Meanwhile, harvest conditions still remain favourable for the next 5-6 days for uncut areas.

Some models are beginning to build a chance of new rains across southern WA later next week, but by that point we should be mostly done with harvest, where it is not already.