Markets

Daily Market Wire 5 December 2023

Lachstock Consulting, December 5, 2023

Wheat continued firmer. The Australian dollar eased almost 1 percent.

  • Chicago March 2024 wheat up 17.75c/bu to US620.5c/bu;
  • Kansas March 2024 wheat up 11c/bu to 657.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis March 2024 wheat up 6c/bu to 736.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2024 up €3/t to €231.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August;
  • Corn March 2024 up 0.75c/bu to 485.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 down 18.5c/bu to 1342c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 down C$4.40/t to C$691.70/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €2/t to €447/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat down A$3/t to $395/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley down A$2.50/t to $32.50/t;
  • AUD dollar down 55 points to  US$0.6620.

International

StoneX Brazil cut its 2023-24 soybean production forecast by 3.1Mt, to 161.9Mt (162.4Mt Conab Nov) against the backdrop of suboptimal weather, notably hot, dry conditions in northern and central areas. The 2023-24 primary (full season) maize output expectations were trimmed by around 0.3Mt, to 26.5Mt (25.9Mt), while the secondary (safrinha) crop was cut by 1.7Mt, to 97.3Mt (91.2Mt). Total maize output seen at 126.0Mt (119.1Mt). 

World Weather Inc reports that rain will be erratic and lighter than usual in most of center-west, northeast and northern parts of center-south Brazil over the next 10 days, although completely dry weather is not expected. Daily rainfall should be sufficient to slow drying rates and maintain status-quo conditions in the driest areas. Rainfall in the second half of December may increase as the dominating high pressure system aloft weakens and begins to dissipate. Regular rains will continue in southern Brazil, leaving some areas too wet. Argentina’s weather will remain mostly favourable, with alternating periods of rain and sunshine.

Brazil’s Ministry of Industry, Trade and Services estimates cumulative 2023-24 (Mar/Feb) maize exports at 41.5Mt (+20pc) and soybean exports (Jan/Feb) at 97.9Mt (+29pc). 

Statistics Canada have revised 2023-24 all-wheat production up from 29.8Mt to 31.95Mt. Canola production was revised up 960kt, to 18.33Mt and barley production was revised up 1Mt to 8.9Mt.

According to Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry, 2023-24 cumulative wheat exports at 1 December were 5.9Mt (-14pc from previous year), maize at 6.2Mt (-36pc) and barley at 0.9Mt (-41pc) 

US private exporters reported sales of 440kt of SRW wheat for delivery to China during the 2023-24 marketing year, 267kt of corn to Mexico and 183kt of soybean cake and meal to The Philippines.

Algeria’s OAIC seeks (5 Dec) 50,000 tonnes of durum wheat from optional origins, for Jan/Feb shipment.

Australia

Local canola values were down sharply yesterday as headers started rolling again after last weeks rain event. Cereals were mostly stronger by $3-5/mt. Quality is still the pending question though. Variable crop damage is being reported but so far it does not seem to be the outright feed event that it could have been for southern NSW and Vic.

ABARES have pegged 2023-24 Australian wheat production at 25.5Mt (+0.1Mt from Sept). Barley production is estimated at 10.8Mt (+0.3Mt) and canola at 5.5Mt (+0.3Mt). Sorghum production is forecast to fall by 45pc to 1.46Mt, reflecting dry conditions and declining soil moisture levels during the early planting window 

Graincorp received 308kt for the week ending 4th Dec, taking total receivals to just under 5.1Mt. The update noted that rain events coupled with cooler temperatures in NSW and Victoria have continued to delay receival activity, particularly in southern NSW. Growers are hoping to get back onto their paddocks this week, however, there’s some rain still forecast in these areas.

 

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