Markets

Daily Market Wire 5 February 2024

Lachstock Consulting, February 5, 2024

The oilseeds further eased. Wheat remained mixed, most a little firmer.

  • Chicago March 2024 wheat down US1.75c/bu to 599.75c/bu;
  • Kansas March 2024 wheat up 4.25c/bu to 625c/bu;
  • Minneapolis March 2024 wheat up 3.75c/bu to 699.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2024 up €0.75/t to €213.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August 2023;
  • Corn May 2024 down 4.75c/bu to 453.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 down 15.5c/bu to 1198.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 down C$9.80/t to C$598.60/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 down €6.50/t to €416/t ;
  • ASX March 2024 wheat unchanged at A$370/t;
  • ASX March 2024 barley unchanged at A$298.50/t;
  • AUD dollar down 60 points to US$0.6513

International

The US bombed several sites in Syria and Iraq on Friday night, in response to the attack that killed 3 US soldiers. Seven locations were hit with four in Syria and three in Iraq. According to US officials, the strikes were aimed at Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) Quds Force and allied militia groups, with President Biden saying the US does not seek conflict in the Middle East or anywhere else in the world but will respond if attacked. 

Another round of US and UK strikes hit 36 Houthi targets in Yemen on Saturday night. Undeterred the Houthi vowed to continue attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea. 

The EU reached an agreement for a four-year funding deal for Ukraine worth US$54 billion last week. Called the Ukraine Facility, the funding consists of $18.5 billion in grants and $35.8 billion in loans, designed to help Ukraine rebuild and recover. 

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that for the week ending 31 Jan, 2023-24 soybean sowing is now complete with conditions rated at 86pc fair/excellent (92pc previous week, 58pc previous year). With ongoing dry conditions, rainfall will be required to support the crop during critical development stages. Maize planting was 98pc complete with fieldwork in northern growing areas hampered by dry weather. High temperatures were deemed unfavourable for crops in the central region. Sorghum sowing was 93pc complete with crops mostly seen in normal/good condition, although increased pest pressure was reported in some central regions. 

StoneX cut its 2023-24 Brazil soybean production number by 2.5Mt to 150.4Mt reflecting unfavourable conditions. It cut export by 2Mt to 95Mt. Maize production was forecast at 124.5Mt, unchanged from previous. 

According to data from Russia’s Union of Grain Exporters as at 31 January, cumulative 2023-24 wheat exports are at 29.5Mt, up 21pc compared to the previous year. 

Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association reportedly purchased 89,650t milling wheat from the US, including 53,250t DNS (14.5pc protein) at $326/t fob, 25,250t HRW (12.5pc) at $290-$298/t fob and 11,150t SW (8.5pc-10.0pc) at $258/t fob, for Apr/May shipment. 

Thai importers reportedly purchased 120,000t feed wheat from the EU or the Black Sea region, with 60,000t at $262/t CIF liner our, and 60,000t (excl. Russia and Ukraine) at $259/t CIF liner out, for Mar/Apr shipment.

Australia

In local markets, wheat values in the eastern states were mostly unchanged to finish the week. Some short covering existed in certain port zones as exporters fill vessels but overall there was not a lot of change. ASX March 24 wheat settlement price was unchanged on Friday at A$370/t.

There is a wide rain band on the forecast for the next 2 days which is tipped to deliver 25-100mm through NSW from the north west through central and southern cropping regions. The northeast of NSW and southern Qld has less than 10mm on the forecast. WA, SA and Vic are looking at a dry week, except for northeast Vic which will pick up 25-50mm.

 

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