Markets

Daily Market Wire 5 July 2021

Lachstock Consulting, July 5, 2021

Friday’s markets mostly fell about 2pc. Soybeans firmed a little.

  • Chicago wheat September contract down US12.75c/bu to 652.75c;
  • Kansas wheat September contract down 19c/bu to 619.25c;
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract up 2c/bu to 838.75c;
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €4/t to €205/t;
  • Corn September contract down 9.75c/bu to 592c;
  • Soybeans September contract up 2c/bu to 1408c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract up C$19.20 to $830.90;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract down €1.25/t to €536.50/t;
  • US dollar index down 0.3 to 92.2;
  • AUD firmer at US$0.752;
  • CAD firmer at $1.234;
  • EUR firmer at $1.186;
  • ASX wheat July contract down A$1.50 to $295/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 up $1.50/t to $307.50/t.

International

Weaker once again across the boards on Friday in the US as markets sold off into the holiday weekend – Chicago wheat was off 12 3/4¢, KC -19¢, Minny +2¢, and Matif -4€ on the earlier close. Corn was down 9 3/4¢ and beans gained two cents (Matif off 1.25€).  Crude oil has steadied down to $75.2 WTI / $76.2 Brent and the DOW is up 153 points.  The AUD has bounced back to 75.2¢, with the USD index down to 92.2, the CAD $1.234, and the EUR $1.186.

The US boards will be closed until tomorrow there, Tuesday night Australian time.

Adding to the ongoing inflation question, the IMF was out with comments late last week indicating that they believe the US Fed will be forced to raise interest rates by the end of the next year, 2022, if not earlier.

A fairly quiet overall day session last Friday with many already off for the long weekend in the US, with the boards closed until Tuesday there.We’re still largely in a weather market on US row crops and it is always risky carrying length through a holiday window with weather maps changing every day.

There’s plenty of speculation also still in play about Chinese demand, with the local USDA attaché there calling imports at 20 million tonnes (Mt) for the new season, down 6Mt from the global USDA estimate.

US weather maps have solidified around increased rainfall chances for parts of central Minnesota and Wisconsin with lesser falls, an inch or so, across northern Iowa and the eastern corn belt and cooler temperatures with it.  As has been the case for much of the season it remains more friendly on the eastern corn belt, with the western edge missing out.

Egypt’s GASC is going to be back once again for wheat tonight, for shipment first half September.

Russia also cut their export taxes nominally. As always the tax is formula-driven so it’s largely expected. The tax was down to US$41.20/t from $41.30 prior.

Spring wheat crops continued to cook through the weekend though, with 100F+ reported across many parts of ND/MT/SD and no moisture to bring any relief.  Areas where earlier crops had been headed reported exceptional deterioration.

France’s ag ministry pegged wheat crop ratings at 79pc good-to-excellent, no change from prior as we head into harvest.

A late week ruling by a US court has put into question the summer time sales of E15 gasoline in the US – suggesting that vapor pressure waivers issued earlier were beyond the government’s authority to issue.  Not much expected to change for this current season given the time lags to any changes, but raising a new red flag for the “blend wall” for 2022.

To those in the US – a happy 4th of July this weekend.

Australia

Local markets continued to pick up momentum to end the week up some $7-8/t on wheat, though closer to unchanged on barley.  Canola pushed up again to earlier May highs as the global boards moved upward.

The AUD’s bounced back over US75¢, though still down several cents from a few weeks ago.

Nice widespread sprinkles across much of the south east to end the weekend, though overall accumulation still fairly limited.

The BOM’s building up this forecast for WA slightly, with the last runs approaching a widespread inch across the WA wheat belt this week.

 

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