Daily Market Wire 5 July 2023

Lachstock Consulting July 5, 2023

EU rapeseed eased about 2 percent. The Winnipeg canola November contract exhibited a wide trading range yesterday; see note in Australia section. Brent crude oil price gained 2pc. US markets were on holiday. Markets trading yesterday highlighted in bold.

  • Chicago wheat December previous close was US 660.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December previous close was  798.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December previous close was 818.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December up €0.50/t to €234.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December previous close was US$242.50/t;
  • Corn September previous close was 488c/bu;
  • Soybeans November previous close was 1353.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg November canola contract was up C$3/t to$739.40/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2023 down €9/t to €455.75/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat down A$2/t to $386/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley unchanged at $315/t;
  • AUD dollar gained 19 points to US$0.6691.


Reuters reported that Russia had rejected the proposed compromise to allow Russia’s Rosselkhozbank to set up a subsidiary that could connect to SWIFT. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova dismissed the idea as deliberately unworkable, saying it would take many months to set up such a unit and another three months to connect to SWIFT. She also rejected a UN attempt to create an alternative payment channel between Rosselkhozbank and JP Morgan, saying there was no real replacement for SWIFT. 

The Russian foreign ministry said on Tuesday it was obvious there were no grounds to extend the deal beyond 17 July and that Russia was doing everything necessary for all ships covered by the deal to leave the Black Sea before that date.

Agribusiness consultancy, AgRural, in Brazil revised upwards its safrinha production forecast up by 5Mt, to 102.9Mt, reflecting favourable weather amid the progressing harvest. StoneX have also revised upward its safrinha maize crop by 3Mt, to 105.2Mt. 

Brazilian national agricultural agency Conab reported that as at 3 Jul, the 2022-23 first maize crop harvest was 95pc complete, and the second (safrinha) crop threshing was 20pc complete. It said fieldwork was most advanced in Mato Grosso where continued decent productivity was reported. Season 2023-24 wheat planting was 80pc complete (71pc previous year). Despite crops being generally estimated to be in good condition, high moisture levels in Rio Grande do Sul have resulted in incidences of fungal disease. It noted pest infestation in Sao Paulo amid dry weather. 

Grain news and price reporter, AgriCensus, pegged Russia’s 2022-23 wheat exports at 44.7Mt based on port-line up data, 51pc higher than the previous year, including 9.1Mt exported to Turkey, 8.1Mt to Egypt and 2.7Mt to Iran. 

The Russian Grain Union has tipped 2023-24 grain production at 130-140Mt, down from around 158Mt in 2022-23, with exports (Jul/Jun) seen at around 55Mt (57Mt previous year). 

Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association seeks (6 Jul) 56,000t grade-1 milling wheat from the US, for Aug/Sep shipment. 

Japan’s MAFF seeks 115,717t milling wheat in its regular tender from the US and Canada, for Sept loading. 



With US markets closed, the local market was still a little subdued. During the Australian session, however, Winnipeg canola screamed out of the blocks, quickly rallying C$20/t higher. It was an interesting move given the US markets were closed. StatsCan recently increased its canola area to 22.1 million acres, 3.2pc higher than 2022 which, when using a 40bu/ac yield produces the largest crop since 2019. However, Alberta canola conditions are rated at 43pc good/excellent (75pc previous year, 76pc five-year avg); it is a case of swings and roundabouts. Late in the day, WA 2023-24 canola bids advanced to A$770/t, the highest level since Feb. 

ASX wheat settled down $2/t to $386/t but without a trade going through. Track APW1 multigrade bids for new crop were $385/t in the west and $400/t in Pt Kembla. Local spot cash markets were softer, once again, without fanfare. Delivered Darling Downs wheat was nominally $410-415/t while Geelong/Melb delivered was quoted at $397/t. 

The RBA left rates on hold yesterday at 4.1 per cent but the Australian dollar did not seem to give two hoots, trading a 30-point range for the next 3 hours. The RBA warned that more might be needed to get inflation under control.



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