Grains futures were mostly lower, oilseeds mixed;
- Chicago wheat July contract down 12.75c/bu to 507.25;
- Kansas wheat July contract was down 18.25c/bu to 468.5;
- Minneapolis wheat July contract down 3c/bu to 560.50;
- MATIF wheat September contract down EUR2.75/t to 182.50
- MATIF rapeseed August contract down EUR0.75/t to EUR369.75
- Winnipeg canola July contract down $C2.20/t to $C453.10
- Corn July contract up 1c/bu to 425.25
- Soybeans July contract up 2.75c/bu to 881.75
- Crude oil July contract up US$0.23/barrel to $53.48
- Dow Jones up 512.40 points to 25,332.18
- AUD up to 0.6994
- CAD down to 1.3395
- EUR up to 1.1253
Corn, beans the main game, wheat a follower
Up, down around about – wheat broke last night amid a mixed reaction to the planting pace release from the USDA. A mixed outcome given the poor pace in corn but, amazingly they increased wheat conditions as the rainfall was seen as a net positive – hard to believe given the maturity of the crop but there you go. Wheat is a follower and the main game remains corn and beans, but this is still a US-centric problem. Globally wheat, corn and bean stocks are in good shape – notwithstanding a complete disaster in the US. In fact, there was plenty of talk about South American corn satisfying both Mexico and, if needed, the US. We are not at that point just yet – if you extrapolate some of the more extreme balance sheets, ie >15m acs lost and sub 165bu/ac then yes – we have a problem.
Lots in the wires today. The swine fever that has ripped through China and Vietnam has been found on a farm in Poland. Not sure of the reaction in the local market there and I assume they would be better placed to manage the contamination but not a great outcome given the damage it has already done. I’m not sure you can read the wires without stumbling across some reference to Trump. He passed comment on the endless negotiations with China, suggesting that they are more interested in blaming the US for the lack of progress rather than getting something done. Rabobank is the latest to weigh into estimating Australia’s wheat crop suggesting the 2019-20 will be closer to 18 million tonnes. Interestingly they cited the compounding impact of 2 years of below average rainfall capping production potential.
Locally markets eased with basis and futures softer. The RBA rate cut was absorbed without fanfare and the market gained confidence on the next rain event. Old crop was extremely quiet with little trade going through as the market rationalises what impact, if any, a rain event would have on their requirements for the balance of the year.