Markets

Daily Market Wire 5 March 2020

Lachstock Consulting, March 5, 2020

Wheat futures traded lower. Corn was higher and oilseeds were mixed.

  • Chicago wheat May contract down US9¢/bu to 518.25¢;
  • Kansas wheat May contract down 5¢/bu to 453.25¢;
  • Minneapolis wheat May contract up 5.75¢ to 529.25¢;
  • MATIF wheat May contract down €0.25/t to €184.25/t;
  • Corn May contract up 3.75¢/bu to 385¢;
  • Soybeans May contract up 3.75¢/bu to 907.25¢;
  • Winnipeg canola May contract up C$0.30/t $466.90/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract down €1/t to €384.25/t;
  • Brent crude May contract down US$0.76 per barrel to $51.10;
  • Dow Jones index up 864 points to 26781;
  • AUD firmer at $0.6620;
  • CAD weaker at $1.340;
  • EUR weaker at $1.114.

Market news

Wheat was back off again, even as corn continues to hold strength.  Chicago ended off 9¢ on the day to 518 1/4¢, KC -5¢ to 453 1/4¢, Minny -4 3/4¢ to 529 1/4¢, and Matif -0.25€ to 184.25€ on the earlier close.  Corn’s rally has continued though, up 3 3/4¢ to 385¢, and beans are up 3 3/4¢ to 907.25¢ (Matif off a euro to 384.25€, Winnipeg up thirty cents to $466.9).  Crude oil is off another forty cents to $46.8 WTI / $51.1 Brent but the DOW has bounced back again, up 864 points.  The AUD has firmed to 66.2¢, the CAD $1.340, and the EUR has shifted to $1.114.

With the US election coming up, last night’s “Super” Tuesday results in the Democratic Party have set the stage for an ongoing tense primary, Biden winning enough delegates to take the lead but Sanders close behind. The big question will be how divisive is the fight, leading into the convention, and if it makes for a fractured party leading up to the race against President Trump.

We did see a China flash come in today with two boats, 110,000t, of sorghum sold to China.

Optimistic talk continues to float around about the potential for corn business to China to follow, nothing yet, but that’s the hope at current.

The US Secretary of Agriculture has also weighed in, telling Congress that he expects Chinese ag purchases come late spring/summer, a time frame that is not out of the ordinary, as the weight of South American harvest time shipments starts to wane.

The weekly export sales statistics will be released tomorrow.

Argentine export tax changes have been confirmed up 3 per cent for beans, oil and meal.  There will be a sliding scale applicable for smaller farmers.  Markets had expected something similar, so no big surprise here.

Brazil has more rain pushing onto the forecast, which will be necessary to achieve the higher yields people are calling for there. FC Stone reportedly pencilled up their corn estimate to 101.1 MMT (total) the other day, matching the last USDA estimate.

Australia

Rains across NSW are still looking beautiful, with a solid streak between Wagga and Griffith already running upwards of 30 mm accumulation.  Still some more to come through the end of the week and lots of associated optimism.  Nothing new on the maps yet for WA though not seeing significant concerns there. It’s still early days, but something to watch through coming weeks.
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