Markets

Daily market wire 5 September 2017

Lachstock Consulting, September 5, 2017

Overnight markets:

US and Canadian markets were closed Monday for a public holiday, leaving us with only Macro and European data to consider.

  • Matif wheat was unchanged in the Dec contract at 160.5€, though the deferred contracts were 0.25€ higher.
  • Matif canola was down -1€ to 369€.
  • The Dow Jones up 39.46 to 21987.56,
  • Crude Oil up US7.9c to US$47.37,
  • AUD down to 0.794c,
  • CAD up to 1.241c, (AUDCAD 0.986)
  • EUR up to 1.189c (AUDEUR 0.667).

Barley

The Australian barley market has seen a good turn around in demand recently with Chinese buying supporting both new and old crop pricing. This came sooner than expected, with Australian barley overpriced and expected to stay that way on a relative basis to Black Sea and European supplies, until their stocks deplete early next year. A combination of a large short structure in the Saudi market and a relatively tight global balance sheet has seen a contraction in Australian barley’s relative values, which is driving this demand. Feed barley has serious potential to trade over wheat values this year, and is already showing signs of doing so, having appreciated approx. A$40/t in a four week period. Australia’s barley output this year is expected to decline significantly due to lower planted acres and unfortunate growing conditions. This trend of lower acreage has occurred globally, due to unappealing economic signals at time of planting. On top of this, global demand has increased, due to increases in inelastic demand, and Chinese consumption brought on by low quality corn and impressive import margins.

Wheat

It will be interesting to see how wheat opens up after the holiday. It’s difficult to garner any direction from European markets that were very quiet. One positive is that they didn’t fall away when the Ruble dropped 0.5 per cent, which could suggest that grower selling has eased as the focus in Russia switches to executing their massive program. The fund short position is building in CBOT wheat, as reported after the close on Friday, which could spark a short covering rally, if funds decide to de-risk.

Australia

Nothing major from a moisture perspective in Australia at the moment, which is becoming quite a concern for NSW and Southern QLD. There is talk of some serious frost potential later this week, although the BOM’s current forecast does not extend that far out. The damage from frosts which hit NSW in the last two weeks are now slowly becoming apparent and are expected to cause reductions in yield potential, in addition to that brought on by limited available moisture supplies. The last thing the NSW crop needs is another frost. Cash markets are responding to this and also the strength in futures, with traders now seeking out parcels rather than batting them away. Amazing how quickly sentiment can shift in this market.

 

Source: Lachstock Consulting

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