US and Canadian markets were closed Monday for a public holiday, leaving us with only Macro and European data to consider.
- Matif wheat was unchanged in the Dec contract at 160.5€, though the deferred contracts were 0.25€ higher.
- Matif canola was down -1€ to 369€.
- The Dow Jones up 39.46 to 21987.56,
- Crude Oil up US7.9c to US$47.37,
- AUD down to 0.794c,
- CAD up to 1.241c, (AUDCAD 0.986)
- EUR up to 1.189c (AUDEUR 0.667).
The Australian barley market has seen a good turn around in demand recently with Chinese buying supporting both new and old crop pricing. This came sooner than expected, with Australian barley overpriced and expected to stay that way on a relative basis to Black Sea and European supplies, until their stocks deplete early next year. A combination of a large short structure in the Saudi market and a relatively tight global balance sheet has seen a contraction in Australian barley’s relative values, which is driving this demand. Feed barley has serious potential to trade over wheat values this year, and is already showing signs of doing so, having appreciated approx. A$40/t in a four week period. Australia’s barley output this year is expected to decline significantly due to lower planted acres and unfortunate growing conditions. This trend of lower acreage has occurred globally, due to unappealing economic signals at time of planting. On top of this, global demand has increased, due to increases in inelastic demand, and Chinese consumption brought on by low quality corn and impressive import margins.
Source: Lachstock Consulting