International

Ukraine’s cumulative 2024-25 grain exports as of 4 September are estimated at 7.2Mt, up from 4.9Mt over the same period last year, including 3.8Mt wheat, 2.3Mt corn and 1.1Mt barley. 

Reuters reported a push by India to make more corn-based ethanol had resulted in India becoming a corn net importer for the first time in decades, squeezing local poultry producers and scrambling global supply chains. The increase in import demand comes after an increase in the procurement price of ethanol made from corn in an attempt to shift away from sugarcane-based ethanol. With the government promoting ethanol in gasoline to reduce carbon emissions and trying to ensure ample supply of cheap sugar in the world’s biggest sugar market, India appears set to become a permanent net importer of corn. 

The USDA monthly Oilseed Crushings, Production, Consumption and Stocks Report shows July soybean crush at 5.8Mt, up from 5.5Mt in June and 5.5Mt in July 2023. Canola crush was estimated at 230,516t, up from 196,212t in June and 209,247t in July 2023. 

Brazil grain exporter association ANEC pegged September soybean exports at 5.6Mt, soymeal at 1.7Mt and maize at 6Mt. It estimated cumulative calendar year soybean exports to end of September at 89Mt, and full year 2024 at 99Mt. 

A group of Thai importers reportedly has issued an international tender to purchase 120kt of feed wheat for shipment in several possible combinations between Oct 2024 and March 2025. 

The lowest offer in South Korea’s NOFI tender for 60kt feed wheat was reportedly US$265.73/t c&f. 

The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased 101,700t milling wheat from the US in a tender on Wednesday. 

Jordan’s state grain buyer purchased 60kt feed barley from optional origins, at $222/t c&f, Oct shipment. 

US private exporters reported sales of 131kt of soybeans to China during the 2024-25 marketing year.

Australia

New crop cereal prices yesterday in Western Australia were bid up A$3/t. New crop wheat was bid $350/t FIS, and barley was bid $305/t FIS. WA canola bids eased about $5/t, to $755/t FIS.  

Eastern Australian price movements were similar. Wheat bids were up around $6/t to about $335/t. Canola and barley were largely unchanged. Delivered Darling Downs wheat bids were $318/t and barley $295/t. 

The 8-day forecast is looking more positive for the cropping regions of SA, western Vic and southern NSW with 10-25mm expected over the coming week and, for SA particularly, it cannot come soon enough. 

The BOM latest Climate Driver Update noted the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. Three of 7 climate models suggest the possibility of sea surface temps in the tropical Pacific exceeding the La Niña threshold from October, while the remaining 4 models, including that of the Bureau, suggest temps are likely to remain at ENSO-neutral values throughout the forecast period. This means it is possible a La Niña may develop in the coming months.