We haven’t heard the term “dead cat bounce” in a while, but that’s the term being bandied around in the markets after last night’s session the US – Chicago wheat ended up 2¢ to 510 3/4¢, KC +3 3/4¢ to 426¢, Minny -1/4¢ to 501.5¢, and Matif off half a euro to 179.25.  Corn was up a cent and three quarters to 310 1/4¢ while beans dropped 3 3/4¢ to 876¢ (Matif -2 3/4€, Winnipeg -$2.4 to $488.4).  Crude oil was up another seventy cents to $42.2/ $45.2 Brent and the DOW gained 373 points.  There’s still now resolution to the political impass in the US on the new stimulus package, and the USD index has collapse back to 92.7, with the AUD 72.0¢, the CAD $1.326, and the EUR $1.188.

Egypt’s buying agency, GASC, bought seven boats of wheat at a $225-6/t C&F level including approx $10/t of GASC costings. There was a lot of talk about the number of GASC offers (20+) which some are interpreting as bearish.  China bought another 192,000t soybeans new crop. Ethanol production was down by 27,000 barrels per day. A private forecaster cut its US corn yield estimate below 180bu/acre.  Canada was also back in the news, with our friends at Farmlink publishing crop tour estimates that put the total wheat crop there at 39 million tonnes (Mt), by far a new record and included 7Mt of durum.  In contrast, France’s Agrimer has cut its crop estimate sub 30Mt given poor yields but at this point markets were generally well in acceptance of lower French production.

Australia

Parts of southern and central NSW have had a cold start to the morning with below-zero temperatures which dropped 2-3 degrees C below zero for a few hours in many spots.  The question now will be how much frost damage is confirmed in fields in coming weeks.  Most are expecting some, but there are a wide range of opinions on the extent and signficance of the weather. Good rain continues to fall in Western Australia, widespread weekly totals ranging from 10-40mm. New-season markets again came off across the board yesterday we saw another $3-4/t downside on wheat along the east coast. SA values have held up over the course of the week with more patchy forecasts and the ongoing tightness in the old crop.  Old crop markets are going to be a race to the finish line, with the domestic market running very hand-to-mouth for August and September.  Will we see some more early Sept harvest in parts of Qld rescue the domestic consumers?