International

Global market volatility continued yesterday. Stock markets extended Friday’s losses falling, around the world, as concerns grow of a slowing US economy. The Nikkei was down 12pc at the close, its sharpest sell-off since 1987. The S&P 500 was down 3pc its worst day since September 2022, the Euro Stoxx 50 fell 1.4pc and the FTSE 100 was down 2pc. 

According to Ukraine’s Ag Ministry 2024-25 grain exports as of 5 August are estimated at just below 3.7Mt, up more than 40pc from the same time last season. The total included 1.5Mt of wheat, 1.6Mt of corn and 533kt of barley. It estimated total combined grain and oilseed production could fall to 77Mt, including 56Mt of grain. 

The Alberta Crop Report for the week ending 30 July notes that recent hot and dry weather has pushed condition ratings lower over the week, with spring wheat now rated 55pc good/excellent (60pc previous week, 45pc previous year), barley 47pc (56pc, 42pc) and canola 43pc (49pc, 42pc). Soil moisture was seen at 33pc good excellent (35pc, 31pc), with rainfall recorded in parts of the Northeast, Northwest and Peace regions, although only the latter showed an improvement. Much of the province requires additional rainfall to achieve current yield potential, which is currently expected to be average. 

The USDA Oilseed Crushings, Production, Consumption and Stocks report shows June canola crush was up 28pc this month at just over 198kt and was well above June 2023 (158kt). Soybean crush was estimated at 5.5Mt, down from 5.8Mt in May but higher than June 2023 (5.2Mt). 

Farmers in India have reportedly increased the area planted to pulses, helped by above average rainfall during the first half of the monsoon season, with total pulse area estimated at 11.1mha (10.0mha previous year), including pigeon peas 4.2mha (3.3mha), mung beans 3.2mha (2.8mha) and lentils on 2.6mha (2.6mha). 

South Korean Flour Millers’ Association made no purchase in its recent tender for 50kt of US milling wheat, citing higher than expected prices. 

Jordan has issued a new international tender for 120kt milling wheat from optional origins, with offers to be submitted by 6 Aug.

Australia

Local markets in Western Australia largely were unchanged to begin the week. Canola was bid A$740/t nearby and $790/t for new crop, FIS. New crop wheat and barley were bid $370/t and $323/t respectively. It was a similar story in the east, with little change to Friday’s bids. New crop canola was up around $2/t across the board, while cereals were unchanged. 

Last week brought patchy rainfall across southern Australian cropping regions with the heaviest falls centred over southwest WA. The difference in crop conditions in the east between the north and south continues to diverge with NSW on track for record crops, while southern Vic and SA continue to look for the next rainfall event to keep crops on track for at least average yields.

The RBA Board will meet at 2pm today, with most economists expecting it to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35pc. Despite recently released inflation data showing a marginally higher result than the RBA’s May forecast, it is not expected to be enough to warrant a policy response.