Markets

Daily Market Wire 6 December 2023

Lachstock Consulting, December 6, 2023

Australian grain prices, US wheat and corn gained. Canola was down 2 percent and MATIF eased. The Australian dollar eased another 1 percent.

  • Chicago March 2024 wheat up 10.75c/bu to US631.25c/bu;
  • Kansas March 2024 wheat up 5c/bu to 662.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis March 2024 wheat up 2.75c/bu to 739c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2024 down €2/t to €229.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August;
  • Corn March 2024 up 5c/bu to 490.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 up 0.5c/bu to 1342.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 down C$11.20/t to C$680.50/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 down €1/t to €446/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat up A$1/t to $396/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley up A$7.50/t to $330/t;
  • AUD dollar down 68 points to  US$0.6552.

International

Russian President Putin will visit the UAE and Saudi Arabia today and will host the Iranian President in Moscow the following day, with discussions to focus on bilateral relations and the Israel-Hamas war. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that discussions on oil market cooperation will also be on the agenda. 

US private exporters reported sales of another 198kt of SRW wheat to China during the 2023-24 marketing year. 

Conab reports that as at 3 Dec, Brazil 2023-24 first (full-season) maize sowing was 60pc complete (71pc previous year). Good planting progress was noted in Minas Gerais and São Paulo, but rainfall hindered fieldwork in Bahia and Paraná. Soybean sowing progressed to 83pc done (91pc), with fieldwork nearing completion in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo and Paraná. Recent rainfall aided fieldwork and crop development in some regions, including in Goiás and Minas Gerais. However, limited moisture continued to adversely impact crop development is some areas, including Mato Grosso and Paraná. Wheat harvest was 99pc complete (92pc).

According to Russia’s Ag. Ministry, as at early Dec, 2023-24 grains harvest estimated at more than 150Mt (bunker weight), the second largest on record. 

SovEcon estimates November Russian wheat exports at 3.4Mt, down from 4.3Mt a year earlier. November exports were the lowest since the beginning of the season. Exporter activity last week declined sharply due to stormy weather in the Black Sea. Loading ships was impossible, with waves reaching up to 8 metres. The update noted that storms in the Black Sea are a seasonal occurrence at this time of year and are unlikely to significantly affect Russian exports in the current marketing year (July-June). However, this serves as a reminder that the global market might be overestimating Russian export prospects. 

Ukraine reported 7Mt of cargo has been shipped via the temporary humanitarian corridor. Of that, 5Mt was listed as grain. A total of 226 ships have navigated the corridor safely. 

Egypt’s GASC issued a tender (5 Dec) for optional origin milling wheat for three delivery periods in January and February.

Australia

Local markets had a firmer tone again yesterday as the offshore bounce, combined with a relaxing of the Aussie Dollar, helped to drive bids up by around $1-3/t. SFW values have a wide range as there is currently some variance in quality expectations because of the recent rainfall. Of greater concern is the forecast rainfall, with SA and Vic forecast to receive the highest totals. 

Viterra received 292kt for the week ending 3 December, taking total receivals to just under 4.4Mt. Grower deliveries slowed last week due to wet weather, with wheat making up more than half of all commodities delivered. The update noted it had loaded more than 1Mt onto vessels in October and November and is the first time that volume has been reached in the first two months of the marketing year. 

CBH received 1.3Mt for the week ending 4 December taking total receivals to 10.58Mt. The update noted that harvest was winding down, with both rain and weather-related harvest bans further slowing deliveries for the week.

 

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