Daily Market Wire 6 February 2024

Lachstock Consulting February 6, 2024

Wheat markets eased.

  • Chicago March 2024 wheat down US9.5c/bu to 590.25c/bu;
  • Kansas March 2024 wheat down 11c/bu to 614c/bu;
  • Minneapolis March 2024 wheat down 8.75c/bu to 691c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2024 down €3.25/t to €210/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August 2023;
  • Corn May 2024 down 0.25c/bu to 453.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 up 6.5c/bu to 1204.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 up C$5.60/t to C$604.20/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 down €1.75/t to €414.25/t ;
  • ASX March 2024 wheat down A$4/t to $366/t;
  • ASX March 2024 barley unchanged at A$298.50/t;
  • AUD dollar down 30 points to US$0.6483


US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Saudi Arabia yesterday, as the US and allied Arab states try to negotiate a cease fire/hostage release. Under the proposed agreement, Hamas would return more than 100 Israeli hostages in exchange for a pause in fighting and the release of Palestinians in Israeli jails. Mr Blinken is also tasked with reiterating the message that the Biden administration does not want war with Iran or for the conflict to widen into a broader regional conflict.
Stratégie Grains have pegged EU 2024-25 rapeseed production at 18.4 million tonnes (Mt) (19.8Mt previous year), reflecting a 0.6Mha decrease in the area sown. The decline in area, mainly in eastern Europe, is likely to result in higher EU imports than in 2023-24, both from Australia and Ukraine. Sunflowerseed production is forecast at 10.7Mt (9.9Mt previous year) reflecting higher yields.

According to the USDA FAS Buenos Aires Post 2023-24 Argentine wheat production is estimated at 15.4Mt, 400kt higher than USDA official as yields were higher in the final phase of harvest than expected. Corn production is projected at 57Mt, 2Mt higher than USDA official mainly on a larger planted area. Crop conditions to date are very good with beneficial weather forecast in the months to come. Sorghum production remains the same as USDA, but exports are forecast at 900kt, 400kt lower than USDA official, although the final volume will depend significantly on China demand.
Reuters reports that Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan will discuss a new mechanism to allow Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea with President Putin during his upcoming visit to Turkey on Feb 12.
According to Ukraine Deputy Prime Minister, 14.3Mt of agricultural products have been exported via the temporary humanitarian corridor in the last six months.
US private exporters reported sales of 155kt of corn to Mexico during the 2023-24 marketing year.


In local markets the softer AUD was the main story yesterday. A firmer tone showed in eastern values, though ASX March 24 wheat settled at A$366/t, down $4/t. As sorghum crop potential builds, we are seeing values relax even further, now down to around $350/t track. 

ABS data shows that Australia exported 1.4Mt of wheat in December, up 24% from November but 47% less than December 2022. China the biggest market took 252kt followed by The Philippines (207kt) and Indonesia (165kt). Australia exported a record 1.3Mt of barley in December, up 49% from November. China took 89% of the total volume at 1.16Mt, with most of the remaining volume heading to Japan (123kt). Canola exports in January were 564kt, up 4% from November but 36% less than December 2022. The EU was the biggest market on 255kt, followed by Japan (98kt), Pakistan (80kt) and Mexico (80kt).


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