Markets

Daily Market Wire 6 March 2019

Lachstock Consulting, March 6, 2019

US wheat futures closed higher; canola in Winnipeg took a C$5/t cut.

  • CBOT Wheat May contract was up 7.25c to 462.75c
  • Kansas wheat May contract up 8.25c to 451.25c
  • Corn May contract up 1c to 375.75c
  • Soybeans May contract down 2.25 to 913.75c
  • Winnipeg canola May contract down C$5 to $457.80
  • MATIF canola May contract up €1.50/t to €353
  • Dow Jones down 13.07 points to 25,806.63
  • Crude oil down $0.03 to 56.56
  • AUD down to 0.708c,
  • CAD down to 1.334c,
  • EUR down to 1.130c.

Wheat

Wheat news has been quiet – crop conditions in Kansas were off slightly to 48% rated good-to-excellent, while Oklahoma and Texas were both up to 53% and 36% respectively.  There are some comments about winter kill on wheat starting to come in, but for the most part the crop was well covered – and the snow melt moisture will continue to help.  Given the significantly improved moisture conditions, there is also some more talk about increased winter wheat grazing this year – with intention to follow up with a row crop that can return better on the moisture than current wheat markets allow.
The Russian Ag ministry is calling for a 75-78 million tonnes (Mt) new season wheat crop, a more reasonable at this point in the season than those convinced it will absolutely be over 80 Mt already but still subject to upside if weather holds.  Egypt has rejected a Romanian wheat cargo on quality concerns – so far it appears a limited case, no repeat of the prior extended quality disputes.

Corn and soybeans

Concerns are building about US corn and bean planting given the extended winter –

News overnight that China has officially cancelled the import registration of  Canada’s Richardson Intl has riled canola markets.  We’ve seen previous interference there (with the Chinese government using it is a threat to try and interfere in the Huawei corruption case) and talk about restrictions over the weekend, but this is the first formal notice of action.  Meanwhile, down in Brazil, heavy rains in the Amazon have shut down soybean movements north to river ports on BR-163, leaving thousands of trucks backed up on the road and delaying bean loadings.  Southern ports are so far unaffected and the growing safrinha corn crops there will also benefit from the increased moisture.  Speaking of corn, the Indian government will reportedly be formally announcing a reduction in their corn import tax to facility imports after a lower than expected winter corn crop.  Previous comments have suggest that they may come to the market for 1 Mt of imports – potentially challenging as it would all need to be non GM.

Australia

Showers so  far have been light but consistent across the southern edge of WA wheat belt – with better coverage still on the radar starting tomorrow. Back east, markets started to firm slightly through yesterday – the liquidity has been limited on the lower end as sellers stay back.  Though it is something that has been ongoing for months now, with the discounted feeder cattle prices up north Lachstock is seeing more and more interest in on-farm feeding up north in an attempt to carry cattle through to the rain (whenever the drought breaks) – the last few weeks of price drop have definitely helped on that calculation.

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