Wheat futures led most markets firmer.
- Chicago wheat December contract up US11 cents per bushel to 584.25c;
- Kansas wheat December contract up 14.75c/bu to 524.25c;
- Minneapolis wheat December contract up 3.75c/bu to 535.5c;
- MATIF wheat December contract up €1 per tonne to €197.75;
- Corn December contract down 0.25c/bu to 379.5c;
- Soybeans November contract up 0.75c/bu 1021.5c;
- Winnipeg canola November up C$3.30/t to $520.40;
- MATIF rapeseed November contract up €0.25/t to €389.75;
- Brent crude November contract up US$2.02 per barrel to $41.29;
- Dow Jones index up 466 points to 28,149;
- AUD firmer at $0.718;
- CAD firmer at $1.326;
- EUR firmer at $1.178.
Chicago wheat closed up 11.5c to 584.75c/bu, Kansas was 15c higher to 524.5c/bu and Minni rallied 3.75c to go out at 535.5c/bu. Corn was down -0.25c to 379.5c/bu while Beans were up 1c to settle at 1021.75c/bu. WCE Canola rallied 3.3 CAD/mt closing at 520.4 CAD/mt with Matif Canola finishing higher by 0.25 Eur/mt to finish at 389.75 Euro. In outside markets the Dow Jones gained 465.83 points the Aussie was higher, to 0.7184, the CAD up 0.7541 and the Euro rallied 1.17858. Crude closed 2.34 higher at 39.39.
- US wheat markets had a big jump today on rumours of China enquiring to buy HRW. It’s surprising to see China buying wheat at these levels too given where French wheat is priced. Might be another buy the rumour sell the fact deal on US wheat again.
- The corn/wheat spread has pushed above 200c and is historically wide. In the lead up to what could be a bullish WASDE report on Friday you would wonder if the 200c premium wheat holds over corn would be sustainable. Factors at play in corn include adjustments to yield and area. The 30 September grain stocks publication reported corn down 10pc compared with 2019. Add this to the potential for increases in corn exports, to match up with the sales reports, and we should see a corn carryout sub 2bbu.
- President Trump leaves hospital today and is providing some macro support in markets that have been dealing with a large amount of uncertainty in the political space
- Corn and bean harvest continues to push along but at this point we haven’t seen that correlate with more farmer selling
- The prospect of another two weeks of below-normal rainfall for the winter wheat areas in Russia continues to provide support. Speculation that Russia may institute a new quota for wheat exports is ongoing
- Macro support for crude oil flowed into bean oil and canola today
Markets & Drivers:
- Public holiday through SA, NSW and QLD yesterday with markets opening up today to kick off the week
- Good rains through SA over the weekend topping up crops
- Forecast remains positive for SA, VIC and southern NSW for the next 8 days
- WA remains dry on the forecast in which is now a flag of concern for this time of the season and crop stage
CBH monthly stocks report shows wheat at 425,000t and barley at 324,000t, Viterra stocks report show wheat at 77,000t and barley at 175,000tt
Source: Lachstock Consulting