Markets

Daily Market Wire 6 October 2022

Lachstock Consulting, October 6, 2022

Oil gained 2pc and French rapeseed dropped 2pc. Australian wheat firmed 2pc.

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US1 cents per bushel to 902c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 1.5c at 990.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract up 5.25c/bu to 981.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €3/t to €352.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract up $1/t to $332.75/t;
  • Corn December contract up 1c/bu to 684/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract down 13.75c/bu to 1369.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola Nov 2022 contract up C$9.70 to $873.40/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract down €13.50/t to €632.75/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up A$10/t to $461/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract up A$3.5/t to $330/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.648.

International

The Opec+ group of oil-producing nations have agreed to a cut in output of two million barrels a day, a much bigger cut than the predicted 1M-1.5M barrels, sending oil prices higher.

SovEcon reports that Russian wheat exports in the 2022-23 season are now forecast at a record 43.4 million tonnes (43.1Mt previous forecast). The higher estimate is based on a growing harvest and rising import demand. Although exports from July through September were about 14pc below the five-year average.

Ukraine is reportedly holding talks to ensure grain continues flowing from its Black Sea ports even after a deal expires next month, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the president’s chief of staff, said in a Bloomberg TV interview on Tuesday. He declined to elaborate on when results can be expected, describing talks as “complicated”. Ukraine doesn’t negotiate with Russia directly, according to Podolyak. Instead, there are sub-negotiating groups that include Turkey and the United Nations.

According to the European Commission EU corn imports from July 1 to Oct 2 have almost doubled from 3.77Mt last year to 7.37Mt this year reflecting the impact of the drought on corn production.

StoneEx has released its revised forecast for US corn yield of 173.9 bushels per acre, which is up from its previous estimate and higher than the USDA’s current figure of 172.5 bushels per acre. They lowered their expectation for soybeans to 51.3 bushels per acre (USDA’s 50.5 bushels per acre last month).

Palm oil inventories in Malaysia are estimated to have increased to their biggest in nearly three years after rising production outpaced a recovery in export demand. Stockpiles rose by about 8pc in September to 2.26Mt.

USDA’s Grain and Feed Update for China reports that Brazil will be able to export corn to China before the end of the year, earlier than the previously planned timeline of mid-2023, as the Chinese government has agreed to temporarily waive a key clause in the phytosanitary protocol re-signed in May 2022. Brazilian traders reportedly have submitted documents to their government for export accreditation. Brazilian authorities will examine, certify, and register exporters’ storages at ports and send a list of qualified exporters to China. Chinese importers have also already applied for import permits. Brazilian traders project over 1Mt of corn exports to China in calendar year 2022.

Australia

Local markets were again firmer across the boards yesterday through old and new crop. Wheat bids were up $5-7/t. Canola bounced hard with grower bids up $25-30/t. CBH is offering short term capacity on canola in the west tomorrow.

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a number of initial flood warnings for New South Wale’s inland rivers, with minor to moderate or major flooding expected in systems from the Upper Macintyre River on the Queensland border to the Upper Murray on the Victorian border.

In a statement released yesterday, WaterNSW said it has cut water releases from key regional dams after cautiously lowering storage levels in recent days in preparation for inflows generated by large rainfall events forecast to cross regional NSW.

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