Brent crude oil eased another 2 percent. US wheat, up 3 percent, more than gained ground lost the previous day. The US dollar index eased from recent highs.
- Chicago wheat December gained US18.25c/bu to 578.25c/bu;
- Kansas wheat December gained 24c/bu to 690.5c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat December gained 19.75c/bu to 731.5c/bu;
- MATIF wheat December gained €1.25/t to €235.25/t;
- Black Sea wheat has not quoted since 11 August;
- Corn December gained 11.5c/bu to 497.5c/bu;
- Soybeans May 2024 gained 4.75c/bu to 1325c/bu;
- Winnipeg November canola gained C$0.40/t to C$711.20/t;
- Winnipeg May 2024 canola eased C$0.40/t to C$732.10/t;
- MATIF rapeseed November 2023 eased €14.50/t to €424.50/t;
- MATIF rapeseed May 2024 eased €10.25/t to €449/t;
- ASX January 2024 wheat eased A$1/t to $407/t;
- ASX January 2024 barley eased A$2.30/t to $350/t;
- AUD dollar gained 45 points to US$0.6370
The latest CFTC report shows the combined wheat spec short (Chicago, Kansas and Minni) in a notional basis (position x price) is the shortest on record for this time of year. Meanwhile, the major exporters ending stocks number is dangerously close to levels not seen since 2007/08. With question marks still sitting over Indian demand and potential tightening in Australia and Canada risk premium seems light. The function of US exchanges’ global relevance is constantly called into question but recent price action suggests world stocks are being ignored. This has been highlighted by recent Chinese SRW wheat purchases which indicate the US is one of the cheapest origins and, maybe, just maybe, futures have been beaten up enough.
Massive jobs report will be released in the US tonight. Many are calling for the S&P to feel the pain as it teeters just above the 200-day moving average but, worth pointing out that early calls on the S&P pre the jobs report have been sketchy at best. US bonds continue to recover which ultimately will add to the USD support and, in a normal world, could pressure the Australian dollar.
Local markets on Thursday were quiet as the trade digested what the recent rainfall meant. While the following commentary is a massive over-simplification, the consensus is that Victorian crops will hold yields, southern NSW mixed and the rain received in central and northern NSW was too little too late. The fact Vic holds yields is still very significant given many were eyeballing a 20Mt national wheat number pre the rain. Current LSC national production is 25.135Mt with Vic pegged at 4.9Mt.
Super early canola harvest reports indicate Moree/Goondiwindi oil results 39pc – 43pc with the majority in the low 40s.
In cattle markets, despite the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) pushing lower every week the domestic cattle feeder is still facing some extremely challenging economics. Recent analysis indicates that the feeding margin, based on a buyer accumulating every day and holding these cattle for 9 months is negative for the first time since the EYCI began in 1997. Despite some holes in these assumptions it’s fair to say the beef market needs to provide the margin and/or a dramatic drop in feeding costs. The latter seems a little difficult today with southern delivered markets not that far from pricing into the export path. However, the southern grower is still very undersold.
Cattle market showed some signs of life with Wodonga up 20c/kg liveweight, new season lambs up to $15/head more expensive.
CBH released a pre-harvest report pegging the wheat carry over at 5-5.5Mt.
QUBE purchased Viterra’s Narrabri site.