The Ukrainian Grains Traders’ Union has revised up total 2023-24 grains and oilseed production by 3.5Mt to 80.5Mt (73.8Mt previous year) reflecting beneficial weather and good crop yield expectations. Maize was up by 1.1Mt, at 28.0Mt (27.3Mt), wheat up by 1.8Mt at 22.0Mt (20.2Mt) and barley up by 0.6Mt at 5.8Mt (5.8Mt) and rapeseed up by 0.2Mt, at 4.1Mt (3.6Mt). Sunflower seed production was maintained at 13.9Mt (11.1Mt). Total exports are forecast at 49.0Mt, down from 58.0Mt last year, noting that exports can only achieve the predicted level should volumes be dispatched from Black Sea ports, also taking account of logistics on alternative routes, including from ports along the Danube River.

Central US temperatures are expected to moderate after another heat wave over the holiday weekend. Most areas of the central US will remain dry over the next week, although light rains are possible in the Ohio River Basin and across the northern Plains and upper Midwest.

According to India’s Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra, forecast September falls of rain across various parts of India are expected to mitigate crop damage and ensure sufficient food supplies after a delayed monsoon and dry August. In an interview with Bloomberg he said that India’s ample grain reserves and upcoming rice harvest would prevent food security concerns. Despite recent export curbs on rice and other measures to protect the domestic market, Chopra reassured the situation is not worrisome. Government stockpiles of rice and wheat are deemed sufficient for welfare programs, and monitoring of stockpiles by traders will prevent hoarding. Local wheat supplies are also adequate, and the decision to remove import duties is under consideration. 

Rainfall in the east of China’s Heilongjiang province is expected to be 20pc to 50pc higher than normal in September, the China Meteorological Administration said. Heavy late-season rains could slow crop maturation and harvesting, especially after two typhoons hit the region in August. 

Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia were at their highest level in six months at the end of August, as production increased, and exports fell. Stockpiles have increased about 27pc from the low in April and could signal headwinds for benchmark palm oil prices. 

US private exporters reported sales of 251,000t soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2023-24 marketing year.

Australia

Local markets were mixed yesterday with grower bids for new crop wheat largely unchanged, while current crop was a touch firmer. Current and new crop wheat trade markets also started to firm late in the afternoon. Barley also firmed again in WA on new crop, while current crop bids were relatively unchanged through SA and Vic where the demand has been. Canola was bid a touch softer, and pulses were also largely unchanged.

Lineups data show there is currently 2.68Mt of total grain on the stem for September including wheat at 1.56Mt, barley at 605kt, canola at 322kt and sorghum at 194kt. Congestion at Australian ports is showing slight improvements this week, with 8 vessels anchored and 7 loading. 

The 8-day forecast is not looking promising with less than 5mm pencilled in for most cropping regions, while Qld has none. Parts of southeast NSW, Vic and SA have 5-15mm on the forecast.