Markets were mixed. The oilseeds firmed a little.
- Chicago December 2024 down US6c/bu to 574.75c/bu;
- Kansas Dec 2024 wheat down 4.25c/bu to 588.75c/bu;
- Minneapolis Dec 2024 wheat up 2.25c/bu to 625.75c/bu;
- MATIF wheat Dec 2024 down €2/t to €218.50/t;
- Corn Dec 2024 down 2c/bu to 410.75c/bu;
- Soybeans Nov 2024 up 2c/bu to 1023.5c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola Nov 2024 up C$8.20/t to $587.90/t;
- MATIF rapeseed Nov 2024 up €7/t to €473.50/t;
- ASX Jan 2025 wheat down A$1/t to $324/t;
- ASX Jan 2025 barley up A$1/t to $271/t;
- AUD dollar up 16 points to US$0.6741.
International
Offshore markets took a breather overnight after a week of solid wheat gains. Chicago SRW wheat eased slightly. Early trade saw the market lower before the mid-day bid showed up. Matif wheat was lower but closed before yet another farm group confirmed the poor state of the French crop. Export sales will be interesting given that the lower market definitely unearthed demand. The US only needs to do 320kt per week but has been pumping out well over 400kt weekly. With the board firming it will be interesting to see if the US can maintain this pace. Meanwhile, Russian cash was once again unchanged at US$218/t.
Technicals are still maintaining the upward swing, which is even more important given that both the HRS and HRW contracts historically are very short. Corn is still record short and now, late in their growing season, the heat has shown up. The USDA report next week will provide some direction but, it is worth noting that much of the data that is used to compile this report will miss the hot forecast.
The implications for the Canadian canola anti-dumping probe continue to be felt in the soybean pit. Onshore Chinese veg oil provided the fuel to the crush margins opening up which, in turn led to a bunch of US soybeans trading into China.
South American planting conditions will start to be traded more heavily. Early soybean planting will be impacted by an unusually dry stretch which is not a disaster but is one factor to watch.
Australia
The canola price gains made earlier in the week dropped off yesterday in the west with a fall of $10-15/t in most port zones. This was variable by company.
WA barley prices remained steady and wheat bidding firmed by $2-5/t.
In the east, we saw a similar drop in canola prices and slight uptick in wheat. In parts of NSW we also saw an increase in barley prices.
Patchy rain has fallen this past week in southern areas of Vic, SA and coastal WA, with totals in the range 10-50mm. Elsewhere cropping areas have been dry, receiving less than 5mm.
Light falls up to 10mm are forecast over the next eight days for Qld and WA, 10-25mm in NNSW and Vic/SA 15-50mm.
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