Daily Market Wire 7 April 2020 (updated)

Lachstock Consulting, April 7, 2020

Wheat, oilseeds firmer and corn weaker.

  • Chicago wheat May contract up US6.5¢/bu to 555.75¢;
  • Kansas wheat May contract up 3.75c to 475.75¢;
  • Minneapolis wheat May contract up 2.25c to 526.75¢;
  • MATIF wheat May contract up €4.25/t to €195.25/t;
  • Corn May contract down 3c/bu to 327.75¢;
  • Soybeans May contract up 1.25¢/bu to 855.5¢;
  • Winnipeg canola May contract up $C1.20 to $462.60/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract up €4.25 to €368/t;
  • Brent crude June contract down US$1.06 per barrel to $33.05;
  • Dow Jones index up 1627 points to 22680;
  • AUD firmer at $0.6093;
  • CAD weaker at $1.4127;
  • EUR weaker at $1.0794.



In the wheat pits Chicago settled up 6.5 usc/bu closing at 555.75usc/bu, Kansas was 3.75 usc/bu higher to settle at 475.75usc/bu, while Minni rallied 2.25 usc/bu to go out at 526.75usc/bu. Corn fell -3 usc/bu to go out at 327.75usc/bu while Beans were up 1.25 usc/bu to settle at 855.5usc/bu WCE Canola rallied 1.2 CAD/mt closing at 462.6CAD/mt with Matif Canola finishing higher by 4.25 Eur/mt. In outside markets the Dow Jones gained 1627.46 points, Crude was down -2.26 bbl the Aussie was 0.0096 points higher to settle at 0.60867, the CAD softened -0.0079 while the EUR fell -0.0005.

The wheat yo-yo managed small gains driven by a round of global tender business. Turkey is tendering for hard wheat, The Philippines in for feed wheat and Saudi was sniffing as well. There will be routine buying but the ever present risk that we see some reserve buying is keeping the offer side a little defensive. These are uncharted waters. Price predictions are next to impossible when trying to factor in the potential impact to logistics. Reports that Russian internal logistics are being heavily impacted by COVID-19 restrictions will fuel any bullish sentiment. Offsetting this is the equally difficult-to-determine impact to wheat demand. With wheat vs corn price differential at premiums not seen since 2013/14 its logical to assume discretionary feeders will do everything to include corn in the ration.

The USDA released their first crop condition ratings since dormancy. The national wheat crop receiving a good/excellent rating was pegged at 62pc vs 60pc this time last year. This will provide some context to this Thursday’s USDA April WASDE but the real driver of price will be the weather for the remainder of the season.  Temps are anticipated to fall into “risk” of winter-kill type levels throughout Kansas and eastern Colorado which would be bad but would be a little early to cause widespread damage. The frost risk is one to watch, however.


Locally, old crop values continue to ratchet higher along the east coast. New crop values have held to kick off the week. Planting is now getting underway with some early varieties of feed going in and canola through New South Wales. More scattered showers on the forecast for SNSW leading into the Easter weekend.


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