Market movements were mixed in Monday trading.
- Chicago wheat May contract up US7c/bu to 604c;
- Kansas wheat May contract down 2c/bu to 561c;
- Minneapolis wheat May contract up 8c/bu to 607.5c;
- MATIF wheat May contract market was closed;
- Corn May contract down 6.5c/bu to 553.25c;
- Soybeans May contract up 10.75c/bu to 1412.75c;
- Winnipeg canola May contract up C$26.80/t to $767.60;
- MATIF rapeseed May contract market was closed;
- US dollar index down 0.3 to 92.6;
- AUD firmer at US$0.765;
- CAD firmer at $1.253;
- EUR firmer at $1.181;
- ASX wheat May contract market was closed;
- ASX wheat January 2022 market was closed.
As we move into row-crop planting, there has been an increased focus on new-crop futures, and many are noting the collapse in the May-December inverse on corn, down another 10c today to the lowest level since early March.
On soybeans, the (bean old-crop and new-crop spreads are more steady after the large move Friday.
This was the first week of crop progress, and condition figures nationally for the US, which peg corn at 2 per cent planted and sorghum at 14pc, both about average. Winter wheat conditions at 53pc good to excellent were down year on year, but are fairly neutral from a market point of view, and up from the last pre-winter figures at 46pc. Spring wheat planting at 3pc nationally is believed to be slightly understated after the recent weather.
Regular US export inspections were out last night with another massive week of corn at 1.9 million tonnes, including a large amount of Chinese business, but also over 450,000t of Mexican shipments, pushing absolute numbers up there and adding further pressure to the upcoming USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates to increase export figures. Wheat inspections at 594,000t and beans at 300,000t were about as expected, and sorghum at 165,000t was all China; no surprise.
We also saw a wheat export sales flash with 130,000t of new-crop Soft Red Winter wheat reported to unknown. The Egyptian GASC tender reported late last week is set for tonight, and GASC has been talking down its needs and upping local supplies pre-tender.
Saudi Arabia’s SAGO wheat tender for old-crop saw it buy five boats at around $271/t cost and freight, all reportedly Casillo, and therefore likely to be mostly EU wheat. Prices are at a fair discount to a few weeks ago, and may be some deferred arrival plans in there for the later slots.
Around 25 millimetres of rain is forecast across much of the Russian winter wheat belt in this week’s weather maps.
Meanwhile, Brazil’s Safrinha corn crop remains an ongoing question, with some recent downgrades in estimates being reported, and drier forecasts across the safrinha areas on the two-week models.
Markets slow to the start of the week after the holidays. Improved chances of rain are building for the Western Australian wheatbelt into this weekend, and falls of 15-20mm or more forecast in the latest models.
Source: Lachstock Consulting