Tensions in the Black Sea escalated on Friday when Ukraine attacked a Russian naval ship near the Russian port of Novorossiysk and then on Saturday struck a Russian tanker in the Kerch Strait, south of the Crimean Bridge. On Saturday, Ukraine said it had designated six Russian Black Sea ports (Anapa, Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, Sochi, and Taman) as being in a “war risk area” which suggests that there may be more strikes to come. It appears to have decided if it cannot ship out of the Black Sea then Russia cannot either. The strikes will surely have an impact on volumes/pace of grain being exported and the costs as insurers consider the implications of having vessels in such a high-risk area. 

In an interview with local media, Poland’s Ag Minister said that irrespective of whether the European Commission removes restrictions on imports of grains/oilseeds from Ukraine from 15 September 2023, Poland will continue to prohibit arrivals as a means of protecting the interests of domestic farmers. 

The Saskatchewan crop report noted that hot and mostly dry weather was prevalent across the province, which adversely impacted soil moisture levels. Topsoil moisture continued to decline, assessed at 13pc adequate, 49pc short and 38pc very short and crops were being negatively impacted by drought stress, as well as pest pressure. Harvest is now underway in west-central and south-western regions. 

FranceAgriMer reported that as at 31 July 2023-24 common wheat harvest was 87pc complete, close to the average of 89pc and spring barley harvest was 95pc complete, ahead of average (85pc). Maize crop conditions are 81pc good/excellent (81pc previous week, 62pc previous year). 

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported for the week ending 2 August the 2022-23 maize harvest was 73pc complete with conditions rated at 54pc fair/excellent compared to 73pc last year. Wheat planting 2023-24 was 99pc complete with conditions rated at 88pc fair/excellent (89pc previous week, 81pc previous year). However, crops were exhibiting signs of stress in northern areas due to hot, dry conditions.

Australia

Local markets finished last week positively. 

The big positive news focussed on barley with China lifting all tariffs on Australian barley effective 5 August causing the current crop barley market in WA to rally $30/t. The Clear Grain Exchange platform was busy with plenty of trading activity. SA barley values showed around a $10/t lift while in the eastern states values were firmer by $15-20/t. 

The official announcement was made on Friday afternoon with the Australian Government saying it had been advised by China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) that it will remove the anti-dumping and countervailing duties and that they will discontinue the WTO appeal. The statement from MOFCOM said it had “ruled that, in view of the changes in the market situation of barley in China, it is no longer necessary to continue to impose anti-dumping duties and countervailing duties on the imported barley originating in Australia.” 

Wheat was bid a touch firmer, current and new crop. The ASX January wheat contract was up $5/t, settling the day out at $404/t. 

The 8-day forecast has more rainfall on the way for WA with 5-25mm on the radar with the heavier totals again favouring the south. Eastern SA and Vic can also expect 5-15mm. Unfortunately, central/northern NSW and Qld are looking at another dry week which is where rain is needed the most.