International

Black Sea market analyst SovEcon reported that as of July 1, Russian wheat stocks reached 20.3Mt, exceeding last year by 21pc. Stocks hit a new record amid an early start to harvest, with weather anomalies over the past several months allowing harvest to begin much earlier than usual. By early July, about 6.9Mt of wheat was harvested, compared to 0.2Mt a year earlier. SovEcon also cut its 2024-25 corn production estimate by 2Mt to 25.6Mt due to hot and dry weather during July limiting yield potential and noted that further cuts cannot be ruled out due to the continued lack of rain. 

UkrAgroConsult cut its Ukraine corn production estimate by 1.4Mt to 26Mt due to unseasonably hot and dry weather in main growing areas. Corn exports from Ukraine in 2024-25 may decrease by 30pc due to crop losses, seen at 20.4Mt in 2024-25. 

Egypt’s GASC is reportedly seeking 3.8Mt of wheat from optional origins in a tender scheduled for 12 Aug. All offers will be submitted on a FOB basis, payment within 270 days, for shipment on 1-15 and/or 16-30 each month (except February). Bidder is committed to providing quantities of three months shipping (minimum). 

According to Argus Media, France is forecast to see its worst soft wheat harvest in more than 40 years due to excessive rain. Production may drop to 25.2Mt, down 27pc on the 5-year average. Ceaseless rains along with a lack of sunshine and low temperatures favouring disease have impacted yields and quality in most growing regions. 

Crop consultant Michael Cordonnier revised upward his US corn and soybean yield projections by 0.5 bu. each to 182 bu. and 52.5 bu. per acre, respectively, noting August started without any widespread problems and beneficial weather. That lifted his production estimates to 15.02 billion bu. corn and 4.42 billion bu. soybeans. 

Wheat crops in Southern Brazil that were sown a little earlier this year and are in the grain-filling stage could be impacted by cold weather that may bring frosts by the end of week. Cold temps are forecast to hit southern states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Paraná on 10 Aug and again on 13 Aug. 

Japan’s MAFF is seeking 83,445kt of milling wheat from the US, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close on Thursday.

Australia

Local markets recorded some big losses yesterday, particularly for canola which was off around A$25/mt across the country on the back of volatile conditions in global financial markets with traders unsure what to make of it. 

Southern growers continued to closely monitor the 10-day forecast with warmer than average temperature and no meaningful rainfall forecast for most of Vic and SA cropping regions. In WA it is a different story with recent rainfall boosting confidence in the season and more rain forecast. Yield expectations have increased to above average for most parts. 

This week’s lineups data show that there is 1.81Mt of total grain on the stem for August. Wheat is sitting at 885kt, barley 261kmt, canola 422kt and sorghum 244kt. Port congestion was mixed last week with the average wait time less than 7 days. There are 4 vessels anchored and 5 loading at Australian grain ports.