International

Black Sea wheat was up US$1.75/t, and US soybean meal gained 2pc in Friday trading.

Across the ag complex, spot fires are fuelling the buying. The major input continues to be the size of the potential production cuts in South America. The Wall Street Journal is back with another round of estimates – this time they surveyed a bunch of industry participants who put Brazil’s soybean crop at 133 million tonnes (Mt), 6Mt below the January USDA estimate, and Argentina’s soybean crop at 44.2Mt versus the USDA on 46.5Mt. With USDA’s revised estimates due out on Wednesday, the market will be positioning in the early week sessions.

Domestic US inventories of soybeans and corn are expected to be trimmed by the USDA, while the trade is expecting a slightly looser wheat figure. Weather forecasts for South America will also drive the soybean and corn markets this week.

The widely reported first date between China and Russia has led to Russian wheat and barley being allowed into China.

Australia

Aussie markets rounded out the week on high. We saw wheat values in Western Australia firm and plenty of trade activity through the market, with ASW1 the main grade that continues to find a bid around $330 free in store across the WA port zones.  Eastern Australia’s wheat liquidity remains steady at relatively unchanged values, and March ASX wheat contract firmed.  Barley prices continued to firm in South Australia over the week, and we saw track Adelaide finish Friday around $318/t.

Canola buyers continue to step back into the market and more interest is gaining along the east coast and SA.

The sorghum harvest has gained momentum with no rain expected for the next eight days. Reports indicate yields are above average and road freight remains tight.