Markets

Daily Market Wire 7 February 2024

Lachstock Consulting, February 7, 2024

Wheat gained a little.

  • Chicago March 2024 wheat up US4.75c/bu to 595c/bu;
  • Kansas March 2024 wheat up 4.5c/bu to 618.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis March 2024 wheat up 2.25c/bu to 693.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2024 up €1/t to €211/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August 2023;
  • Corn May 2024 down 2.75c/bu to 450.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 up 3.5c/bu to 1208.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 down C$3.70/t to C$600.50/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €7/t to €421.25/t ;
  • ASX March 2024 wheat unchanged at A$366/t;
  • ASX March 2024 barley unchanged at A$298.50/t;
  • AUD dollar up 39 points to US$0.6522

International

As protests continue across the EU, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen saying  yesterday the Commission proposes to withdraw the plan to halve the use of pesticides in the EU, calling it a symbol of polarisation and telling the European Parliament farmers deserve to be heard.
Conab Brazil reports that as at 3 Feb, 2023-24 soybean planting was now complete. Harvest was 14pc complete (9pc previous year), with a recent reduction in rainfall allowing fieldwork to progress in Mato Grosso. In general, later-sown crops are in relatively good condition, but yield potential is lower than previous season. Moisture is needed in Rio Grande do Sul, while harvest in Parana is advancing against the backdrop of reduced rains. First (full-season) maize sowing at 95pc complete (99pc), with harvest at 14pc (9pc). In the state of Minas Gerais, yields have been lower than expected, but progress in Rio Grande do Sul has been boosted by dry weather. Second (safrinha) crop plantings are 20pc complete (11pc), with good progress in Mato Grosso reflecting drier conditions. 

Brazil’s Brazil’s vegetable oils industry association Abiove cut its.2023-24 soybean production forecast by 4.2Mt from Dec, to 156.1Mt, with 2024 (Jan/Dec) exports lowered by 1.2Mt, to 98.1Mt (101.9Mt previous year). Domestic processing unchanged from before at 54.5Mt (52.1Mt). Soymeal output maintained at 41.7Mt (40.7Mt), with exports at 21.6Mt (22.6Mt). 

Reuters reports that Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased 60kt of hard milling wheat from CHS (optional origins) in their tender yesterday at an estimated US$262.95/t (c&f) for shipment in the second half of April. Offers were reported as follows – Cargill $276.5, Viterra $279.5, Nestwise $268.8, Cerealcom Dolj $292.5, Ameropa $263.9, Grainflower $277, Buildcom $272 and MC Food $274. Jordan is expected to issue a new tender for 120kt in the coming days closing Feb 13 for May-June shipment. 

Japan’s MAFF seeks 136,321 tonnes of milling wheat from the US, Canada, and Australia in a regular tender that will close on Thursday. 

Iran’s state feed importer SLAL reportedly seeks 120,000 tonnes of feed barley from optional origins and 120,000 tonnes of soymeal from Brazil or Argentina, for Mar/Apr shipment.

Australia

In local markets, WA wheat values held up pretty well yesterday given the weakness in offshore futures and lower global FOB values. Some exporter buying came in late in the day as the AUD pushed towards its lows, with APW1 Kwinana around A$410/t FIS and H1 $425/t. Feed barley has improved since last week and remains at $345-$350/t FIS levels for the Kwinana port zone. Best bids for canola (CAN) are back to $660/t FIS, with some demand for GM Canola at a significantly improved $10/t discount. 
The RBA left interest rates on hold yesterday at 4.35pc. In a post meeting statement, the board said inflation had clearly eased but it was still high at 4.1pc. Goods price inflation had fallen faster than the bank had forecast, but services inflation was only moderating gradually. It warned there was a high level of uncertainty around the outlook for the Chinese economy, the consequences of the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and how those might impact Australia’s economy and that further increases couldn’t be ruled out.

 

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