Daily Market Wire 7 November 2019

Lachstock Consulting, November 7, 2019

Mixed futures markets overnight.

  • Chicago wheat December contract up 1.5 cents per bushel to 516.75c;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 2.25c to 427.75c;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 2.75c to 523.25c;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €0.75 to €178.50;
  • Corn December contract down 3c to 378.75c;
  • Soybeans January contract down 6.75c to 927.25c;
  • Winnipeg canola January contract up C$0.30 to $462.40
  • MATIF rapeseed February contract up €2.75 to €388.50;
  • Brent crude January contract down $1.22 to $61.74;
  • Dow Jones index down 0.07 points to 27492.56 points;
  • AUD weakened to US$0.6883;
  • CAD weakened to $1.3184;
  • EUR weakened to $1.1069;

StatsCan released their monthly export data which had canola down 7pc year on year – impressive given the lack of China in their export program.

There is a glimmer of hope for the Canadians with China lifting the ban on both pork and beef.

While this is clearly in response to the shortfall of protein via African Swine Fever it does help smooth relations.

US futures markets still in a holding pattern ahead of the next WASDE.

Australian wheat, international markets drivers

Further confirming the need for a downward adjustment in Australian wheat was INTL FCStone’s crop survey estimating the national wheat crop at 15.54 million tonnes (USDA 18Mt, LSC 16.1Mt).

This returns the focus to export availability and the relativity to competitors such as Russia.

With WA and SA pricing export parity into some Asian consumers but with the majority of the wheat harvest in front of Australia growers and traders alike are trying to define the downside.

Victorian delivered zones have felt the brunt of the market pull back which has largely occurred without any meaningful new crop selling.

Ideas that the Vic crop will outperform has buyers sitting on their hands which maybe a precursor to their behaviour once we get into the main wheat harvest.

Additionally, traders’ appetite is not what it was this time last year – however, if the market presents the ability for lower risk trades supplying international consumers, will they increase involvement?

Presidential impeachment application news

The impeachment circus will begin in earnest next week with the public testimonies of 3 key witnesses.

This will be the first time the general public will get to hear from the witnesses with all the previous investigation done behind closed doors.

Bill Taylor – a US diplomat – seems to be the key in the $400 million in security aid that was allegedly the bargaining chip in the lead up to the 2016 election.

As an appetiser for next week’s main course, the Democrats released four transcripts from the closed door interviews and will release Bill Taylor’s deposition either today or tomorrow.

Like it or not this is all we will hear for the next week out of the US and holds the potential to move markets.

Australia weather and harvest news

Back locally there was some slight hope that Queensland was going to get some follow up rain according to WX maps and as you can guess that has now seemed to disappear out of the back end!

However there are scatted showers forecast for Western Australia on the BOM 8-day which will slow harvest up for a day or two, and Victoria is set for another front to hit over the weekend.

Headers get set to roll again through NSW and with a clear run at it should see large part of harvest wrapped up before we know it.

Aussie markets remain quiet for the week with little harvest action due to recent weather and cooler temps.

It feels like markets have held some ground for now but with the large part of Victoria wheat harvest still yet to get underway is there some more harvest pressure to come or have markets already done the work?




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