Markets

Daily Market Wire 7 November 2022

Lachstock Consulting, November 7, 2022

Friday’s market moves mostly were firmer and mostly 1 per cent or less. Soybeans gained 2pc, the US dollar index fell 2pc, Brent crude oil gained 3pc and the Australian dollar gained nearly 3pc against the US.

  • Chicago wheat December contract up US7.25 cents per bushel to 847.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 12c/bu at 953.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract up 11.5c/bu to 954.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €1.50/t to €339.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract down US$0.50/t to $317.50/t;
  • Corn December contract up 1.75c/bu to 681c/bu;
  • Soybeans March 2023 contract up 25c/bu to 1469c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola March 2023 contract was down C$1.80/t to $895.30/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2023 contract up €4.75/t to  €664.25/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down $A5.50/t to $488.50/t ;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$350/t;
  • AUD dollar firmer at US$0.647.

International

Russia wants Western countries to ease curbs on state-owned agriculture lender Rosselkhozbank to facilitate Russian grain exports, according to a Reuters report. Russia is seeking restoration of the bank’s relations with correspondent banks despite sanctions. The plan would likely be to let Rosselkhozbank process payments for grain, with this playing a key part of talks on rolling over grain deal. Before the latest sanctions, such payments were handled by international banks and subsidiaries of other Russian banks in Switzerland.

Ukraine’s corn harvest is currently down 72pc from a year ago because of adverse weather and disruptions caused by the Russian invasion, according to Agriculture Ministry data saying 6.3Mt of corn has been harvested as of Nov. 4 vs 22.8Mt a year earlier, across 1.1Mhectares — accounting for 27pc of plantings — vs 3.3Mha at 4 Nov last year. 

Thousands of tonnes of wheat and canola are reportedly stranded in Canada after rain has hampered deliveries at the country’s largest port during peak shipping season. Grain terminals in Vancouver are having trouble loading and unloading grain amid heavy, persistent rain in British Columbia, creating a backlog of trains that are unable to deliver to the port 

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange cut 2022-23 Argentine wheat production estimate again from 15.2Mt to 14.0Mt, with late-season frosts now cited for further declines following an extended drought. 

French farmers had sown 84pc of the expected soft wheat area for next year’s harvest by 31 Oct vs 63pc a week earlier, farm office FranceAgriMer said on Friday.

Iraq bought around 150k tonnes of wheat in an international tender this week, likely sourced from Canada, Lithuania, and Australia, at $490-499/t C&F.
 China has reported its highest number of new COVID-19 infections in six months, a day after health officials said they were sticking with strict coronavirus curbs. Chinese stocks soared last week on rumours of a possible easing of COVID curbs and media reports that some tweaks to policy could be coming soon. However, many analysts say they do not expect significant easing to begin until after China’s annual parliamentary session in March.

Australia

Local markets rounded out the week a touch firmer on milling wheat. ASX Eastern Wheat January contract on Friday settled down $5.50/t at $488/t. Harvest activity though Qld/Northern NSW and WA continued to trickle in with mixed results. Fine warm weather in SA is set to kick in this week which will help assist with early harvest.

A very welcome dry couple of days were had over the weekend which will continue into this week with less than 10mm currently on the forecast for most. Unfortunately, showers are expected to build again by Friday with 15-50mm expected to fall next weekend, with the heavier totals expected in Southern NSW and Vic. 

All rivers in inland NSW are already in flood. They could remain that way for weeks and possibly months. Forbes became submerged in floodwaters as the Lachlan River peaked at 10.7 metres on Saturday evening, close to the levels of the 1952 floods, while in Wagga the Murrumbidgee River peaked on Friday at 9.72m, its highest level in a decade. There were 101 flood warnings in place as of late Sunday. 

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