Markets

Daily Market Wire 7 October 2022

Lachstock Consulting, October 7, 2022

Offshore grain and oilseeds markets eased. The US dollar index gained.

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US23 cents per bushel to 879c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 25.25c at 965c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 19c/bu to 962.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €7.75/t to €345/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract down $1.50/t to $331.25/t;
  • Corn December contract down 8.5c/bu to 675.5/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract down 11.75c/bu to 1358c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola Nov 2022 contract down C$6.50 to $866.90/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract down €16/t to €616.75/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up A$3.50/t to $464.50/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$330/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.640.

International

Inspection of vessels in the export corridor has slowed substantially since late September according to Black Sea market analyst SovEcon. In August and the first half of September, the vessels typically were passing the inspection in Bosphorus within 5-6 days after leaving the Odesa terminals. In late September number of days started to rise sharply, reaching typically 10-15 days. 

Russia’s Ag Ministry has warned of declines in 2023 winter grain planting, due to low soil moisture in southern crop areas. Farmers there accelerated planting last week but the overall pace continues to lag last season. 

French grain growers group AGPM forecast 2022/23 corn production to decline to a 19-year low of 10.0Mt (15.2Mt previous year, 14.0Mt 5-year ave) because of drought.

The lowest offer to a recent Iraqi Grain Board tender to buy at least 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat, was quoted at $386/t c&f from Ukraine. Offers are still being considered and no purchase has yet been reported. 

Jordan’s state grains buyer reportedly made no barley purchase at its 5 October tender for 120,000t feed barley and has scheduled a new event (12 Oct) for an equivalent volume, for Mar-Apr shipment. 

Tunisia reportedly bought around 150,000t soft wheat and 100,000t each of durum wheat and feed barley yesterday, for shipment from November through mid-Dec. 

Brazil grain exporters’ association ANEC sees October corn exports at 4.2Mt, up from 1.9Mt last year, also noting exports could reach 5.5Mt. Soybean exports are seen at 3.1Mt, up from just under 3Mt in October 2021. 

Australia

 Local new crop wheat markets continued to gain a little more strength yesterday. Themes in the market have not changed with the sentiment all around weather and quality.

The impact of rain and cool weather will further delay the start of harvest and makes accessing grain difficult at many sites. The more rain we receive the less likely we will see large volumes of high protein wheat. In NSW particularly, the prospects of anything above APW is becoming less likely in many regions unless the weather turns hot and dry. Unfortunately, the forecast does not point to this happening in the short term. 

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