Markets

Daily Market Wire 7 September 2022

Lachstock Consulting, September 7, 2022

Canola eased 2pc. Corn gained almost 2pc and US wheat tended firmer. Brent crude eased 3pc.

  • Chicago wheat December contract up US6 cents per bushel to 817c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 4.25c/bu to 882c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 0.25c/bu to 889.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €3/t to €318.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract down $1.75/t to $314/t;
  • Corn December contract up 10.25c/bu to 676/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract down 21.75c/bu to 1398.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract was down C$18.50/t to $798.75/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract down €7/t to €605.50/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up A$4/t to $399/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$315/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.673.

International

A South Korean consumer purchased about 65,000t feed wheat expected to be sourced from Australia, according to global media.  The price was said to be about US$351.75/t c&f plus a $1.50/t surcharge for additional port unloading, and shipment 19 Dec to 20 Jan.

Egypt’s GASC purchased 120,000 t Russian wheat in a private transaction, at $340/t fob, for Nov shipment.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday that the West was not honouring its promise to help Russian food and fertilizer exports reach global markets. Lavrov said the West had not relaxed sanctions to make it easier for Russia to export agricultural products. Moscow saw the commitment as a key part of the export corridor deal. “Our Western colleagues are not doing what we were promised by the U.N. Secretary-General,” Lavrov told a news conference in Moscow. The comments have raised doubts that the deal will be extended beyond the initial 120 days.

Russia will respond to price caps on Russian oil by shipping more supply to Asia, its energy minister Nikolai Shulginov told reporters at the Eastern Economic Forum on Tuesday.

Black Sea market analyst SovEcon pegs Russian August wheat exports at 3.5Mt (2.3Mt prior month, 5.2Mt same month of previous year), barley at 600,000t (200,000t, 564,000t), maize at 100,000t (150,000t, 68,000t).

Ukrainian Agrarian Council expects total exports of agricultural products in 2022/23 (Jul/Jun) to total 50Mt from a harvest of 60-65Mt.

According to Ukraine’s Ag Ministry, as of 2 Sep, grain exports totalled 4.2Mt (9.1Mt previous year), incl. wheat 1.2Mt (5.0Mt), maize 2.6Mt (1.3Mt) and barley 361,000t (2.8Mt).

Brazil’s Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics forecast 2022/23 soybean production at 41.5Mt (+2pc y/y) from an area of 11.8Mha (+3pc). There are early indications of rains of up to 50mm predicted over the next month, with particularly sizeable amounts in the northwest, northern and mid-northern regions of the state. The 2021/22 corn estimate was raised by 4.6Mt, to 43.8Mt (+35pc y/y). 2022/23 corn production pegged at 45.5Mt (+4pc).

Australia

Canola bids were a touch firmer. Today’s price outlook for canola is negative given the 2pc lower Winnipeg futures close. Wheat and barley price changes in Australia yesterday were small.

The Reserve Bank has lifted interest rates for the fifth month in a row, increasing the cash rate by 0.5pc to 2.35pc, a 7-year high.

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