Chicago wheat traded off 2.5¢, KC -7.5¢, Minny +3.50ó, and Matif -3.5€ on the earlier close. Corn was up a cent and beans +6¢ (although in both cases this was heavily front ended with new crop contracts less supported) while Winnipeg canola jumped $17.5 on the front end (+$8.9 July) and Matif ended up 9.75€. Macro markets have crude up half a buck to $59.3 WTI / $62.7 Brent and the DOW off 97 points. The USD continues to weaken, with the AUD back up to 76.6¢, the CAD $1.257, and the EUR $1.187. .
- Chicago wheat May contract down US2.5c/bu to 601.5c;
- Kansas wheat May contract down 7.5c/bu to 553.5c;
- Minneapolis wheat May contract up 3.5c/bu to 611c;
- MATIF wheat May contract down €3.50/t to €205.75/t ;
- Corn May contract up 1c/bu to 554.25c;
- Soybeans May contract up 6c/bu to 1418.75c;
- Winnipeg canola May contract up C$17.50/t to $783.10;
- MATIF rapeseed May contract up €9.75/t to €503.75/t;
- US dollar index down 0.3 to 92.3;
- AUD firmer at US$0.766;
- CAD firmer at $1.257;
- EUR firmer at $1.187;
- ASX wheat May contract down $6/t to $280/t;
- ASX wheat January 2022 up $1/t to $291/t.
The USDA WASDE April report will be released this Friday. This will be the last purely old crop S&D, with their first official 2021/22 figures coming in the May report.
Stimulus funds are continuing to flow out across the US, with strong growth figures expected – IMF comments last night forecasting a 6.4% overall growth. Still, global economic concerns remain in place with ongoing lockdowns and delayed vaccine rollouts a going concern and red flag about broader recoveries
The first set of surveyed estimates for this coming WASDE report are coming in slightly under 1.4 bbu on corn, down from March’s 1.5 bbu with opinions across the market that the USDA will not be able to avoid recognizing the larger export program after the recent large inspection weeks. If these forecasts are accurate, the cut to ending stocks will be the biggest in almost a decade since the 125 mbu export increase in April 2014, which drew a fairly muted market reaction.
Wheat stocks ideas at 0.85 bbu and beans at 118 mbu are more constant from the March report, and most are also expecting some cuts to South American row crops after the last few weeks of weather/harvest.
Safrinha corn planting reported to be wrapped up across Brazil, with estimates taking bean harvest up to around 80pc complete after the recent dry spell allowed for rapid field work.
Concerns are also starting to build once again about dryness in parts of the Safrinha area (despite the massive pre-plant rains) – and maps are still relatively dry across the two-week outlooks. One private estimate out the other day was already some 5 million tonnes (Mt) lower than govt figures there
Egypt’s GASC tender attracting a large selection of Black Sea offers (including several more Romanian boats) and in the end they bought six slots at around at $252 C&F, low $230s FOB. Five of the six boats were Russian, one Ukrainian (Olam)
This week’s cold snap across Europe (with snow forecast for a number of areas mid-week, falling in the Belgium last night) has delayed spring field work there and raising a few concerns about crop damage.
Markets started off the post-Easter week a touch firmer with prompt demand for wheat/barley on the east coast for both domestic and export.
New season canola markets continue to firm with the higher global moves, with acreage ideas trending higher, although reports of seed shortages are also in play restricting some late expansions.
Early canola planting underway in parts of the Western Districts
BOM maps still bringing a solid rain event across the WA wheat belt into the weekend – last models in the 25-30+ range for almost all.
Source: Lachstock Consulting