The French Farm Ministry revised upward by 0.6Mt, to 35.6Mt, its 2023-24 common wheat production forecast. It now stands at 6pc above last year and 4pc above average, reflecting improved yield prospects. Total barley production was revised up by 0.3Mt, to 12.2Mt (+7pc previous year, +5pc avg) with an above average winter barley crop (9.4Mt) offsetting a poor spring crop (2.7Mt). Rapeseed production estimate was cut by 0.3Mt, to 4.3Mt (-4pc previous year, +11pc avg).

SovEcon revised its 2023-24 Russian wheat exports estimate to a record 48.1Mt, up from the previous projection of 47.2Mt, reflecting increasing harvest outlook and record sales at the start of the season. 

Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry reports that as at 7 Aug, cumulative 2023-24 (Jul/Jun) grain exports totalled 2.6Mt, compared to 2.0Mt over the same period last year, including wheat at 1.0Mt (0.5Mt), barley at 0.3Mt (0.2Mt) and maize at 1.3Mt (1.3Mt).

India’s Food Secretary confirmed India was considering cutting the wheat import tax (currently set at 40pc) and reducing the amount that wheat millers and traders could hold. Other senior officials denied India is looking at a deal to import 9Mt from Russia.

The weekly US crop conditions report published yesterday had both corn and soy conditions up 2 points from the previous week, at 57pc and 54pc good/excellent. Rain fell across much of the Corn Belt, along with areas of the Southern and Central Plains, Delta and Southeast over the weekend, with more expected over the next 10 days, including in the Midwest, central and northeastern Plains, Delta and Southeast. 

The Rosario Stock Exchange reported that Argentina’s July maize sales were estimated at 6.4Mt, the highest volume for July in the past seven years. The total included 4.4Mt sold after the preferential exchange rate scheme was implemented on 25 July.

US private exporters reported sales of 251,460 tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico for the 2023-24 marketing year and 132,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China.

Egypt’s GASC is in for another tender today for optional origin milling wheat for Sept/Oct shipment.

Australia

Local markets buyers began the week focusing on barley. Values were a touch firmer across the continent. Wheat values were largely unchanged for the day, both current and new crop. Canola bids were $15/t firmer by the end of the day. 

Australian exporters CBH and Emerald Grain reportedly have not been added to Chinese customs lists for barley. Trade Minister Don Farrell said the government was working with the industry and China to ensure all producers were promptly registered and allowed access to the market. A CBH spokesperson said the decision to drop the tariffs was welcomed and the company continued to work with the Australian Government to have its suspension lifted. CBH was suspended in September 2020 for allegedly breaching phytosanitary requirements.  

According to ABS data Australia exported 2.57Mt of wheat in June, down from 3.31Mt in May. Indonesia was Australia’s biggest buyer at 509kt followed by Thailand (381kt) and Vietnam (311kt). Registering its lowest wheat volume since September 2021, China took 137kt. Australia exported 466kmt of barley in June, down from 598kmt in May. Saudi Arabia, the biggest market, took 184kt, followed by Japan (155kt) and Thailand (34kt).