International

The Manitoba Crop Report for the week ending 5 August noted that isolated rains were recorded in several regions over the past week, with accumulated rainfall exceeding the long-term average in most areas, but limited surface soil moisture is still noted in some parts of the province. Harvest of winter wheat has begun and harvest of early planted barley is expected to begin this week. Spring wheat is mostly seen in fair/good condition. Recent warm conditions facilitated sunflowerseed crop development and early planted canola reached the pod-filling to ripening stage. 

Brazil’s Conab reported that as at 4 August, 2023-24 first (full-season) maize harvest was 99pc complete (100pc previous year). Second (safrinha) maize crop was 91pc complete (64pc). With the harvest nearing completion, yields are reportedly higher than initially estimated in Mato Grosso, while yields in Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, and Piauí was below expectations. 2024-25 wheat sowing was 100pc finished, with conditions deemed generally favourable for crop development. 

Total EU 2024-25 grain production is seen at 267Mt, according to the USDA’s FAS Grain and Feed Quarterly, 8.3Mt lower than the official USDA number. Exports are forecast at 41.8Mt, compared to the official 45.8Mt. The smaller wheat crop of 127.5Mt (130Mt USDA official) reflects cuts for France, Germany, Hungary, Poland and Romania due to extreme weather. Corn production is seen at 59.8Mt (64Mt USDA official) due to adverse weather in key stages of plant development. 

Reuters reports that the US EPA is investigating the supply chains of at least two renewable fuel producers, focusing on the origins of used cooking oil (UCO). The increased scrutiny on UCO imports, particularly from countries like China, stems from concerns that these supplies might contain virgin palm oil linked to deforestation. Lawmakers have urged the administration to investigate, as UCO imports used for biodiesel production are eligible for credits under the Renewable Fuel Standard.  

The August WASDE will be released on Monday with pre-report expectations from the Bloomberg survey tipping a US corn yield of 182.2 bushels per acre which is above the USDA’s July estimate of 181 bushels per acre. The soybean yield is expected to be revised up to 52.5 bushels per acre from the July estimate of 52 bushels per acre. 

Jordan’s state grain buyer made no purchase in its recent tender for 120kt of milling wheat due to high prices. A new tender (13 Aug) has been issued, for Sep/Oct shipment. 

Algeria’s state grains agency reportedly seeks 50kt of milling wheat from optional origins for Sep/Oct shipment

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Australia

In local markets we saw another day of losses across the board yesterday, with canola bids in WA losing a further $10-$20/t to be bid $715/t and $750/t FIS for nearby and new crop respectively. Cereals also made some small losses except for nearby wheat which made some small gains to be bid $355/t in most port zones. 

Eastern markets saw similar losses to the west for canola with bids for new crop around $680/t, cereal bids were steady at $335/t for barley and $360/t for wheat. 

There has been some reasonable rainfall for the southwest of WA with between 10-25mm recorded. The current 8-day forecast has a further 5-25mm forecast for most cropping regions of WA, 5-15mm for SA and Vic and 5-10mm for NSW. Northeast NSW and southeast Qld could pick up 10-15mm.