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Daily market wire 12 January 2018

by Lachstock Consulting, 12 January 2018

Overnight futures markets:

Lower for grains and oilseeds.

  • CBOT wheat  was down -1c to 433.25c,
  • Kansas wheat down -0.25c to 440.25c,
  • corn down -0.25c to 348.75c,
  • Soybean down -5c to 950c,
  • Winnipeg Canola down -2.80$C to 490.8$C,
  • Matif canola down -3.75€ to 353.75€.
  • The Dow Jones up 205.59 to 25574.73,
  • Crude Oil up 0.009c to $US63.58 per barrel,
  • AUD up to 0.789c,
  • CAD down to 1.252c, (AUDCAD 0.988)
  • EUR up to 1.203c (AUDEUR 0.655).

Wheat

Wheat fractions lower, after recovering early session losses to finish roughly unchanged. Dismal weekly export sales of 71,500t vs. expectations of 350,000t, gave the market a sour tone early before deteriorating conditions helped find a bid.

The drought monitor saw severe drought conditions expanding across the US southern plains, which will be in the back of the shorts’ minds regardless of the USDA supply and demand report tonight.

Implied volatility in March Soft Red Winter wheat futures went out at 19.04pc. Matif wheat was down €2/t, with the Euro rallying 0.7pc and looking to test recent highs.

Russian prices are US$193/t free on board (fob) for 12.5pc protein wheat, while Argentinian continues to pressure the market. Thailand bought a cargo of feed wheat at a $170/t fob; quality was the equivalent of 10.5pc protein.

Corn

Corn fractions lower in another low (2.5c/bu) range session, as the market awaits the USDA report. Brazilian agriculture agency CONAB increased its estimate of the Brazilian crop size up 100,000t to 92.3 million tonnes (Mt). Weekly export sales came in at 437,000t, which was in the middle of market expectations.

Soybeans

Beans were under pressure from revised crop numbers and an improved South American crop. CONAB increased the Brazilian production by 1.2Mt to 110.4Mt, while BAGE decreased Argentine production by 2.5Mt. The Argentine forecast improved and now features 30-60mm for the coming weekend. This led meal lower, finishing down $3.10/t, while oil was 30 points lower.

Weekly US export sales, at 607,000t, were at the lower end of expectations. In the absence of a large demand story, the bean market needs a production issue, which South America is not providing for the moment.

Canola

Canola sold off, in with weakness in the oilseed complex. Funds were noted sellers in a relatively quiet session.

Australia

The Aussie market has taken a firmer tone in the nearby, but this seems more attributed to a track squeeze than anything else. Export demand is not beating down our doors in wheat, although we are pricing close enough to export parity in SA and WA.

The currency is preventing grower liquidity, which is forcing an inverse in nearby markets.

Barley remains very strong, due to ongoing Chinese demand. Saudi added some pressure, announcing a tender for 960,000t for multi-origin feed barley. Australia will not price any of this business, but it will reduce the supply of cheaper origins like Argentina and France.

Source: Lachstock Consulting

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