Overnight futures markets:
Higher for grains, lower for oilseeds.
- CBOT wheat was up 2c to 434.25c,
- Kansas wheat up 1.5c to 440.5c,
- corn unchanged at 349c,
- Soybean down -8.75c to 955c,
- Winnipeg Canola down -2.79$C to 493.6$C,
- Matif canola down -1.25€ to 357.5€.
- The Dow Jones down -17.63 to 25368.16,
- Crude Oil up 0.49c to $US63.45 per barrel,
- AUD up to 0.783c,
- CAD up to 1.254c, (AUDCAD 0.983)
- EUR up to 1.195c (AUDEUR 0.655).
Soft Red Winter (SRW) and Hard Red Winter wheat futures finished stronger, managing to close above their 50-day moving averages. The US weather forecast remains dry in the southern plains, where conditions are already very poor, with some areas having not received moisture for almost 3 months. Market is expecting weekly export sales tomorrow to show around 350,000t, though the major focus is on Friday’s report. Implied volatility in March SRW went out at 20.23pc, up over 1pc on yesterday. In Europe Matif futures were fractions lower, despite the French AG Ministry lowering the carry-in stocks to 4 million tonnes (Mt) vs. trade estimates of 6-7Mt. Jordan is tendering for 100,000t of wheat for July/August shipment and the results will be interesting considering the current disparities in EU/Black Sea pricing.
Corn finished unchanged in March, in another quiet US2c/bu range session. It bucked the soybean pressure, holding steady with wheat ahead of Friday’s report. Corn market has no nearby supply issues, but a large catalyst is required to encourage further downside given the current proximity to seasonal lows.
Soybeans fell victim to an improved weekend Argentine weather forecast. The Brazilian forecast looks to be getting a top-up in southern areas; 60-100 mm forecast in the next 10 days. Meal was down US$1.80/t, while oil finished 25 points lower.
Canola lower despite a weaker CAD, following softness in beans and vegoils. Todays close doesn’t look great from a technical point of view, with the likelihood of a near-term test of the Can$500/t level in March Winnipeg appearing unlikely. Export demand doesn’t seem to be moving as expected, which is making bulls nervous, leaving the market at the mercy of sellers.
The Aussie wheat market showed limited response to the Australian Bureau of Statistics reductions announced yesterday, however the market did firm, though mainly on weaker AUD and CBOT. Both wheat and barley liquidity feels very light in the front end leading up to Jan track execution. With grower selling limited and some new consumptive interest, traders are finding it hard to acquire tonnes for track or vessel execution, which is likely to cause an inverse in the next two weeks.
Source: Lachstock Consulting