Overnight futures markets:
Higher for grains, mixed for oilseeds.
- CBOT wheat was up 4.5c to 432.25c,
- Kansas Wheat up 5.75c to 439c,
- Corn up 1.75c to 349c,
- Soybeans down -3c to 963.75c,
- Winnipeg Canola unchanged at 496.4$C,
- Matif Canola up 0.75€ to 358.75€.
- The Dow Jones up 116.59 to 25399.59,
- Crude Oil up 1.16c to $US62.89 per barrel,
- AUD down to 0.782c,
- CAD up to 1.246c, (AUDCAD 0.974)
- EUR down to 1.193c (AUDEUR 0.655).
US winter wheats found a bid thanks to dryness in the longer-term forecast, which suggested limited moisture until late March.
Traders are expecting total US wheat acres at 31.307 million acres in Friday’s USDA report, which reflects a 1.38 million acre drop.
Implied volatility in Mar Soft Red Winter wheat futures went out at 18.66pc.
Egypt’s buying agency, GASC, bought 115,000t of wheat between US$207.60/t and $208.10/t cost and freight, which pulled the Russian free on board wheat market back $1/t, as the GASC results were expected higher. Concerns for cold temperatures in southern Russia, where snow cover is limited, have eased slightly, as temps are not expected to exceed damage thresholds.
The tender results from Morocco have not been announced yet, but after Algeria’s cheap Argentine wheat purchases, we expect the Morocco business to go to Hard Red Winter wheat due to government subsidies. This leaves French wheat with few friends, given the amount of export business it is missing.
Corn slightly higher, with blizzard potential threatening parts of the eastern corn belt for the remainder of this week. The trade is not expecting any major old crop production changes from the USDA on Friday. Local basis has been pushed up in areas where cold conditions have restricted barge freights, prompting ethanol consumers to increase price to cover. Open interest in corn has increased 42,000 contracts this week as fund rebalancing combines with new shorts.
Soybeans lower, led by weakness in meal, after the weekend rainfall in Argentina combined with great conditions in Brazil to increase production ideas and pressure futures. Soymeal was down $3.3/t, while oil was 16 points higher. The trade is expecting a 925,000t increase in US ending stocks from the USDA, in its report on Friday.
Canola unchanged, managing a resilient close amidst outside oilseed market pressure.
Australia made the headlines today with the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) calling last year’s Aussie crop only 30 million tonnes, as a result of its survey. The threat here is that the USDA might adopt this figure which would shave 3.1Mt of the old crop balance sheet. If the ABS figures are true (we will review and send out a separate report this afternoon), then the machinations for this year’s crop size should be lower based on lower acreage.
Cash markets in wheat are showing some strength, with limited grower selling prompting nearby vessel and consumer shorts to bid prompt above full carry. A weaker AUD should help cash markets today.
Source: Lachstock Consulting