Markets

Daily Market Wire 8 July 2021

Lachstock Consulting, July 8, 2021

Wednedsay’s futures market moves were mixed, oilseeds and wheat mostly 2pc to 1pc firmer. Corn weakened about 2pc.

  • Chicago wheat September contract down US3.75c/bu to 622.25c;
  • Kansas wheat September contract up 0.75c/bu to 584.5c;
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract up 14.75c/bu to 808c;
  • MATIF wheat September contract up €1.75/t to €200/t;
  • Corn September contract was down 9.25c/bu to 542.75c;
  • Soybeans September contract up 20c/bu to 1332.75c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract was up C$19.50 to $790.90;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract up €5.25/t to €511/t;
  • US dollar index up 0.2 to 92.7;
  • AUD weaker at US$0.748;
  • CAD weaker at $1.248;
  • EUR weaker at $1.180;
  • ASX wheat July contract up A$1/t to $291/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 down $2/t to $295/t.

International

USDA next crop production and WASDE reports will publish on 12 July.

Early strength in the overnight markets faded off somewhat into daytime trading last night in the US, with Chicago wheat closing down 3 3/4¢, KC + 3/4¢, Minny +14 3/4¢, and Matif +1.75€ on the earlier close.  Corn was off 9 1/4¢ and beans +20¢ (Matif +5.25€, Winnipeg +$19.5).  Crude oil has given up another buck to $72.2 WTI / $73.4 Brent and the DOW is up 104 points.  The AUD has dropped back to 74.9¢, with the USD index rising to 92.6, the CAD at $1.248, and the EUR $1.179.

The Federal Open Market Committee of the US Reserve released minutes of its recent meeting, suggesting a fairly limited desire/expectation to taper back on their bond buying activity. It indicates FOMC is waiting for “substantial further progress” in the overall economy before making any changes.

Updated weather maps for the US Corn Belt remain fairly moderate with cooler temperatures holding and fairly widespread rainfall still forecast for the central and eastern Corn Belt – far less into the western Corn Belt though.

The German Farmers’ Association predicted the winter wheat crop was up 5pc y-o-y, canola up 6pc, the late season rains benefiting yields.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange forecast Argentina’s soybean crop at 43.5 million tonnes.

With the USDA’s July WASDE reports coming this next week, surveyed ideas for corn yields are largely in the 178 bu/acre range, versus USDA June 179.5, slightly over 50bu/ac for beans, versus 50.8 in June. Corn carry out stocks were forecast in the low 1 billion bushels range on corn and 125-150 mbu range on beans.

Chinese news reports the government will set up a type of pig production insurance through the next three years to encourage herd rebuilding and to dampen concerns over ASF risks.

More crop tours are doing the rounds globally, but so far there’s fairly little “new” to report. Spring wheat crops in North America are very stressed and winter cereals in the Black Sea region are looking very solid.

For those watching spring wheat, the Wheat Quality Council tour doesn’t start until 26 July but, given the crop problems, there are many already doing the rounds and running ahead of the tour through the coming weeks.

On corn and beans, the Pro Farmer tour starts mid-August which is still a month away.

Australia

Local new crop markets remained under pressure on the new crop, tracking lower yesterday as the board collapsed.  Wheat was back A$6-8/t and canola back another $20/t or so.

Old crop markets remained much the same as they have been, still plugging through with execution and logistics dominating the focus as the year wraps up.

Extended-run weather maps are starting to forecast a storm event across northern WA. We will wait to see how it fills out as we move further down the calendar.

 

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