All markets bounced back overnight. US, MATIF wheat gained 4-5pc. Canola, soybeans firmed 3pc. Australian wheat gained 3pc.
- Chicago wheat September contract up US32 cents per bushel to 836.50c/bu;
- Kansas wheat September contract up 37.75c/bu to 889.25c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat September contract up 48.25c/bu to 934.50c/bu;
- MATIF wheat September contract up €13.25/t to €338.75/t;
- Black Sea wheat September contract up $4.50/t to $361/t;
- Corn September contract up 9.25c/bu to 609c/bu;
- Soybeans November contract up 42.75c/bu to 1365.50c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract up C$23.80 at $849.10/t;
- MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract up €9/t to €692/t;
- ASX July 2022 wheat contract up A$14 to $401/t;
- ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up $12/t to $415/t;
- AUD dollar firmer at US$0.684.
Dead cat bounce or a sign of things to come. I, like many in this market, can be accused of over complicating things. Yesterday there was increased noise that China has been shopping, particularly in the global wheat market and guess what? The market rallied. Like it or not, China is the barometer for world ag markets, and, during the entirety of the break, the bulls have been waiting for them to return. Reports overnight that they have bought US and French wheat supported the buying in both the US exchanges and Matif.
Russia/Ukraine dispute is horrific and the implications on the physical market is farcical. The Russian grain union reckons the war is impacting their ability to export grain. The Ukraine sent Turkey a “please explain” request after they let a stolen vessel of Ukrainian wheat leave its port. The idea that these three countries could nut out an agreement on an export corridor have never felt more unlikely.
Global weather is a dog’s breakfast. Argentina planted area and conditions are falling as the moisture deficit builds. Rain in parts of the Black Sea will fall on mature crops and EU is burning up again. Funny how these things hit the wires when the market rallies.
If this were the bullish Olympics, Corn has to be favourite for a gold medal. The heat throughout the EU, particularly in Spain will hit during the crucial pollination window and can only hinder production estimates. Meanwhile, in the US, recent rainfall seems like a stay of execution with dryness returning next week and heat now showing in the back end of the forecast. Corn is cheap in comparison to other grains, even with the break in wheat. There is zero demand rationing with the risk hanging over the production side.
Have we found the bottom? local markets rebounded slightly yesterday on old crop wheat and new crop was also firmer on the bid side. Liquidity still remains thin.
The return of heavy rainfall across parts of New South Wales and Queensland this week will be the end of late winter crop sowing. Dry conditions in recent weeks had allowed significant progress to be made but, in some areas, substantial rainfall totals have led to localised flooding. There will be yield penalties for winter crops that remain inundated. For cropping regions across Victoria, South Australia and Westeran Australia, winter growing conditions have been pretty much ideal. Although recent dry weather means that soil moisture levels are starting to decline.
The 8-day forecast for NSW and Queensland is showing less than 5mm for most areas.
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