Refinitiv Commodities Research have revised downward the EU wheat production forecast by 0.8Mt to 130.4Mt (125.7Mt previous year) citing rain deficits across most of Europe. The latest satellite imagery analysis shows a drop in crop vegetation densities in a number of countries, including in Germany. While southern Europe received significant rainfall surpluses, especially in Spain, although more rainfall is needed. Widespread favourably warm and wet weather is predicted to develop over the coming weeks.

Despite mixed weather Refinitiv kept the rapeseed production forecast unchanged at 20.4Mt (19.5Mt previous year). It noted the recent dry trend was predicted to reverse in the coming weeks, with warmer temperatures and additional rains seen benefiting crops in the late-development stages, potentially underscoring yield potential.

In Canada, the provincial Manitoba Agriculture, Food and Rural Development crop report, for the week ending 6 June saw below normal rains in much of the Central and Interlake regions and isolated storms in other areas. 2023-24 spring crop plantings reached 97pc complete. Generally warm weather saw good emergence of spring cereals, aside from some later-seeded fields due to topsoil dryness, while winter cereals remained in good to excellent condition. Canola plantings advanced to 97pc complete, although there is concern that dry weather may make crops more susceptible to insect damage.

Russian wheat was offered at a low US$229/t + $15.50/t freight in Egypt’s GASC wheat tender beating other origins by $20-25/t.

Ukraine has exported 46Mt since 1 July 2022, compared with 47.4Mt the previous year, according to the Agriculture Ministry, including wheat at 15.7Mt (-16pc) 2.7Mt barley (-54pc) and 27.3Mt corn (+21pc). 

Chinese Customs data show May soybean imports were 12.0Mt (+24pc previous year), with the cumulative year to data at 42.3Mt (+11pc).

Brazil’s association of grain exporters, ANEC, pegged June soybean exports at 13.1Mt (10Mt previous year), soymeal at 2.3Mt (2.2Mt previous year). Corn shipments pegged at 1.7Mt (1.5Mt previous year). 

Local markets were mixed yesterday. WA ASW1 current crop began the day bid a buck or two firmer, but by day’s end was relatively unchanged to a buck or two softer on account of a firming currency. Barley was also largely unchanged. Canola current crop bids also were left unchanged. Wide wheat and barley bid/offer spreads remained in track, delivered and grower markets. 

We have seen some significant rainfall totals this week across WA, SA, Vic and southern NSW, with more rain on the way today for Vic and NSW. Parts of Vic have seen up to 100mm in the last 24 hours alone, with the front expected to move through by tomorrow.