Markets firmed and the US dollar strengthened. Crude oil’s rally has continued on the ongoing production holds by OPEC and post-corona demand optimism – WTI ended up two and a quarter bucks to $66.1 / $69.4 Brent and the DOW picked up 572 points with tech strength leading the way and a fairly positive US jobs report though almost all the gains were on services.
- Chicago wheat May contract up US2c/bu to 653c;
- Kansas wheat May contract up 5.25c/bu to 626.25c;
- Minneapolis wheat May contract up 1.75c/bu to 643.25c;
- MATIF wheat May contract up €0.25/t to €228.25;
- Corn May contract up 13c/bu to 545.50c;
- Soybeans May contract up 19.5c/bu to 1430c;
- Winnipeg canola May contract up C$3.50/t to $785.80;
- MATIF rapeseed May contract up €3.50/t to €518.50;
- US dollar index up 0.4 to 92;
- AUD weaker at US$0.768;
- CAD firmer at $1.265;
- EUR weaker at $1.191;
- ASX wheat May contract down A$5.20/t to $292.80;
- ASX wheat January 2022 contract steady at $308.
International
The US stimulus bill has passed the Senate and will go to the House to approve Senate amendments. It should hit President Biden’s desk for signature fairly promptly.
Ongoing Brazilian harvest delays continue to attract attention with harvest moving forward but many areas still a muddy, flooded mess. More overall losses and quality downgrades are reported each day in the wettest areas. Things aren’t set to improve this week, further rains forecast for central Brazil, more southern areas have a forecast, short reprieve.
The March USDA WASDE report will publish on Tuesday. Pre-report surveys suggest US 2020/21 corn carryout is likely to be 1.47 billion bushels, slightly tighter than the February estimate of 1.5bbu, soybeans carryout 117 million bushels (mbu) and wheat 840 mbu.
In three weeks we will also get the USDA March Planting Intentions, which will be watched more closely than this WASDE in many ways. It will be the first formal reflections on acres for the 21/22 row crop supply/demand balance sheets. Firming row crop markets have left positive margin opportunities for US farms in both corn and beans, but working out the splits on acreage has resulted in many diverging opinions
US weather maps also have some more moisture on the runs for later this week, with half an inch forecast for western HRW areas – certainly not enough to cull the harsh drought conditions there but many are hoping it may be enough to set the winter wheat off to a better start as it emerges from dormancy.
Algeria’s OAIC is set to tender again for wheat for April. It excited wheat markets over the weekend as the bulls looked for a further rally in EU values, especially on the Matif boards.
Saudi Arabia’s SAGO barley tender should see results out early this week. Beneficial freight spreads and cheapening Black Sea region and EU values may deliver more competition for Australia.
Markets are setting up to be a quiet Monday, with public holidays in Victoria and South Australia.
This week’s rain forecasts are looking positive. Much of the NSW cropping belt is forecast to receive 20mm to 30mm, with the exception of the western Riverina region. Parts of northern NSW and the Darling Downs received 5-10 mm overnight.
Source: Lachstock Consulting
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