CORRECTED: Daily Market Wire 8 March 2023

Lachstock Consulting, March 8, 2023

The Australian dollar fell 2pc yesterday. Apart from rapeseed, down 2pc, and canola and spring wheat both down 1pc, international commodity price moves overnight were small.

  • Chicago wheat May 2023 contract up US2.75 cents per bushel to 698c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat May 2023 contract up 1.5c/bu at 799.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat May 2023  down 10c/bu to 852.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May 2023 down €1.25/t to €270/t;
  • Black Sea wheat March 2023 unchanged at US$296.25/t;
  • Corn May 2023 contract down 2.75c/bu to 634.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2023 contract down 13.5c/bu to 1515.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2023 contract down C$8.90/t to $812.90/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2023 contract down €10.25/t to €519.50/t;
  • ASX May 2023 wheat contract down A$2/t to $397/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat contract down A$5/t to $405/t;
  • ASX Mar 2023 barley contract down A$2.50/t to $322/t;
  • AUD dollar fell 146 points to US$0.658.


UN secretary-general António Guterres arrived in Poland on Tuesday, on his way to Ukraine. He will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv today. A UN statement said the pair would discuss the continuation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in all its aspects, and other pertinent issues.

USDA reported winter wheat conditions at 6 March were rated 17 percent good/excellent in Kansas (19pc previous week, 24pc previous year), 19pc good/excellent in Texas (19pc, 7pc) and 39pc good/excellent in Oklahoma (36pc, 15pc).

According to Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, at 2 March, 67pc of the soybean crop was rated poor/very poor, up from 60pc the previous week and 23pc at the same time last year. Soybean crop production is currently forecast at 33.5Mt but further cuts are expected. 

Brazilian national agricultural agency, Conab reported at 4 Mar, the 2022-23 first (full season) maize harvest was 23pc complete (17pc previous week, 26pc previous year). Early results from the harvest in Rio Grande do Sul indicated there were crop losses due to hot and dry conditions. Precipitation hampered progress in Paraná, although rains were deemed beneficial for crops currently in the reproductive phase. Second (safrinha) maize crop plantings were 64pc done (49pc previous week, 75pc previous year). The optimal planting window in Mato Gross had closed, with about 8pc of fields not yet planted. However, already sown area showed good initial crop development. Soybean harvest was 44pc complete (34pc previous week, 53pc previous year). Harvest in Mato Grosso was nearing completion, with the crop seen in satisfactory condition. Rains in Paraná hampered progress, while results from the harvest in Rio Grande do Sul confirmed crop losses due to drought. 

European Commission data show EU soft-wheat exports were 21Mt by 5 March, compared to 19.5Mt last year. Leading destinations include Morocco (3.12Mt), Algeria (2.85Mt) and Nigeria (1.82Mt). Corn imports were 18.6Mt, up from 11.6Mt last year.

According to Chinese customs data, cumulative 2023 (Jan/Dec) soybean imports at the end of Feb was estimated at 16.2Mt (up 16pc year on year).

Jordan reportedly bought 60,000t wheat in a tender that closed Tuesday at US$315.30/t, for August shipment. It issued a new tender for 120,000t wheat. 


Local markets continued to produce a mixed bag. Monday’s grower wheat bids were down a couple of bucks over the day along the East Coast, however buyers were happy to continue to look at stock in certain sites. WA values remained flat over the course of the day. 

ABS data has confirmed Australia managed to export a record 3.3Mt of wheat in January, easily beating the previously monthly record of 2.8Mt set in 2022. China was the biggest buyer at 945,185 tonnes, Indonesia 524,027t second, followed by South Korea, 352,622 tonnes and The Philippines, 333,895 tonnes.

There is a decent rainfall event on the forecast for Qld with 25-100mm expected for central and southern cropping regions, except for the southwest which looks like it will miss out. Northeast NSW looks set to receive 15-50mm.

As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the official cash rate yesterday by 0.25 percent to 3.6pc, the 10th consecutive rate rise and the highest cash rate since 2012.


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* correction: January wheat export ranking as initially published in this article contained an error. It inserted South Korea in second place and has been corrected. Indonesia ranks second.


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